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With prices still languishing below the $55-$60/b that some ministers have said they are targeting, some market watchers say OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have no choice but to deepen cuts to make up for output gains from exempt Nigeria and Libya, as well as sliding compliance from other members.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced 32.49 million b/d in June—an increase of 220,000 b/d from May and representing a 6-month high.
OPEC's first output cut in eight years has earned the group $1.64 billion a day so far this year, up more than 10 percent from the second half of 2016, according to Reuters calculations based on OPEC figures for average production and its crude basket price up until June 20.
Brent crude LCOc1 was down 9 cents at $46.56 a barrel at 1033 GMT. It reached a seven-month low of $44.35 on June 21. U.S. crude fell 17 cents to $44.07.
The August light, sweet crude contract on NYMEX gained 37¢ on June 26 to settle at $43.38/bbl. The September contract was up 34¢ to close at $43.61/bbl. The NYMEX natural gas price for July gained nearly 10¢ to a rounded $3.03/MMbtu. The Henry Hub cash gas price was $2.98/MMbtu, up 12¢. The Brent crude contract for August on London’s ICE increased 29¢ to $45.83/bbl while the September contract was up 29¢ to $46.04/bbl. The July gas oil contract dropped $1.75 to $409.50/tonne. OPEC’s basket of crudes on June 26 was $43.14/bbl, down 12¢.
Global benchmark Brent crude futures were trading up 45 cents, or 1.0 percent, at $45.99 per barrel at 0623 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 43 cents, or 1.0 percent, at $43.44 per barrel.
“Prices can go below $40 a barrel given the market is being dictated by sentiment and not fundamentals. There is nothing to stop it right now.”
OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 270,000 bpd in May over April, to stand at 32.12mn bpd – the highest level since January this year
As oil prices sag despite OPEC’s renewed efforts to shore up world crude markets, Wall Street banks have more bad news for the producer group: the outlook for next year isn’t great either.
"When these factors are taken together I can only conclude that the supplies coming from marginal barrels including shale production will not be sufficient to meet the future need for incremental capacity the mid-term," Falih said. "The market balance is already pointing in that direction," he added.