The steep decline in oil prices over 2015 and the “new reality” of low prices for a longer period of time have led to the deferral of many high-cost projects. Based on research of public data and news releases, Deloitte Marketpoint estimates that non-OPEC cancellations and postponements include 1.3 million b/d of production over the next 5 years.
Brent crude oil was last up 2.1% at $43.82 a barrel, above where it was before talks about a production freeze collapsed over the weekend. Analysts said oil prices drew support on Tuesday from a strike by oil workers in Kuwait, reducing concerns about a global glut of supply.
“The one hope is that earnings bounce back and company cash flows [improve],” Mr Caprio added. “If that doesn’t happen, [companies] will have debt to pay off and it is unclear how they’ll pay it.”
Industrial production—a broad gauge of output across U.S. factories, mines and power plants—decreased a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in March from the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Output has fallen for six of the past seven months. From a year earlier, industrial production decreased 2% in March. Manufacturing output, the largest component of the index, fell 0.3% in March.
Now the two sides, buyer and seller, will have to make do without the safety-net the contracts offered: high gas demand translates into high gas prices for the customers, while indexation to low oil prices would have deprived Gazprom of the upside of a temporary supply glitch or a prolonged cold winter.
U.S. Rig Count is down 3 rigs from last week to 440, with oil rigs down 3 to 351, and gas rigs remain unchanged at 89. Canadian Rig Count is down 1 rig from last week to 40, with oil rigs up 2 to 10, and gas rigs down 3 to 30.
«Рост спроса на нефть в мире ежегодно составляет около 1 млн баррелей в сутки. Это означает, что в отрасли должен быть инвестиционный потенциал не только для сланцевых проектов, но и для других участников рынка».
“A flat output profile for OPEC (excluding Iran) and Russia would tighten global balances by almost 0.5 million barrels a day in the second half relative to our expectations and push the oil market into a deficit in the third quarter,” the U.S. bank wrote in a note on Wednesday. That would “push prices above $50 near term,” it said.
The contango between futures prices in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the average of 2017 has shrunk from $3.75 per barrel in December to $2.50 at the end of February and just $1.65 in recent days.
North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $38/barrel (b) in March, a $6/b increase from February. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $35/b in 2016 and $41/b in 2017. However, the current values of futures and options contracts suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook.