Barclays Commodities Research said its analysts still believe oil prices could rise to $60/bbl in the second quarter assuming inventory draws and the OPEC production cut remains in place. “However, this would likely be temporary, and we forecast prices in the mid $50s/bbl in the second half 2017,” Barclays said.
U.S. Rig Count is up 345 rigs from last year's count of 464, with oil rigs up 280, gas rigs up 63, and miscellaneous rigs up 2. Canadian Rig Count is up 130 rigs from last year's count of 55, with oil rigs up 59 and gas rigs up 70, and miscellaneous rigs up 1.
Total petroleum deliveries moved up by 1.2 percent from the prior year to nearly 19.3 million barrels per day in January 2017. These were the highest January deliveries in nine years, since 2008.
Saudi Arabia faces a difficult balancing act as it tries to work down excess global crude stocks while protecting relationships with important refining customers in the United States and Asia.
Benchmark Brent crude was down 82 cents at $50.14 per barrel at 0936 GMT (5:36 a.m. ET), after dropping to $50.05, its lowest level since OPEC announced on Nov. 30 its plan for cuts. The deal with non-OPEC states was reached in December. U.S. light crude was down 70 cents at $47.54 a barrel, also slipping toward a three-month low.
The NYMEX April natural gas contract continued to march higher Tuesday, climbing 5.2 cents to settle at $3.093/MMBtu on a tightening supply-demand balance characterized by strong LNG feedgas deliveries, March demand above year-ago levels and a 2.8 Bcf/d year-on-year dip in production.
The crude oil contract for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 56¢ on Mar. 20 to $48.22/bbl. The May contract fell by 40¢ to $48.91/bbl. The Brent crude contract for May on London’s ICE decreased 14¢ to $51.62/bbl. The June contract dropped 16¢ to $51.79/bbl. The gas oil contract settled at 458.50/tonne on Mar. 20, up $1.75. The average price for OPEC’s basket of benchmark crudes on Mar. 20 was $49.18/bbl, down 18¢.
In this difficult environment, the Group demonstrated its resilience by generating adjusted net income of $8.3 billion and had the highest profitability among the majors due to the strength of its integrated model and commitment of its teams to reduce the breakeven.
If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries maintains its output cuts and nothing changes elsewhere, demand should overtake supply in this year’s first half, generating an implied market deficit of 500,000 b/d.
Средняя цена на нефть Urals за период мониторинга с 15 февраля по 14 марта 2017 года составила $52,25775 за баррель, или $381,5 за тонну. Согласно расчетам Минфина России экспортная пошлина на нефть в РФ с 1 апреля 2017 года понизится на $2,1 и составит $88,9 за тонну.