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2014-10-14 20:50:00

IEA: OCTOBER OIL MARKET REPORT

IEA: OCTOBER OIL MARKET REPORT

The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for October reduced its forecast of global oil demand for 2014 by 0.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the previous month, to 92.4 mb/d, on lower expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth for 2014 is now projected at 0.7 mb/d, rising tentatively to 1.1 mb/d in 2015 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.

OPEC crude oil output surged to a 13‐month high in September, the monthly report informed subscribers, led by Libya's continued recovery and higher Iraqi flows. Production rose 415 000 barrels per day (415 kb/d) from August to 30.66 mb/d. A weaker demand outlook cut the "call on OPEC crude and stock change" by 200 kb/d for 2015 to 29.3 mb/d. The "call" declines seasonally by 1.5 mb/d from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2015.

The higher output from OPEC as well as from non-OPEC producers lifted global supply by almost 910 kb/d in September to 93.8 mb/d. Compared with a year earlier, total supply stood 2.8 mb/d higher, as OPEC supply swung back to growth and amplified robust non‐OPEC supply gains of 2.1 mb/d. Non‐OPEC supply growth is expected to average 1.3 mb/d in 2015.

Global refinery crude demand hit new highs in August, near 79 mb/d, with OECD runs leading the uptick. The onset of seasonal plant maintenance sees runs fall through October, taking global crude runs to 77.5 mb/d this quarter from 78.1 mb/d in the third quarter, with year‐on‐year growth rising over the same period to 1.4 mb/d from 0.9 mb/d.

OECD commercial total oil inventories in September built by 37.7 mb over August, to 2 698 mb, narrowing the five‐year‐average deficit to 38.1 mb, from 67.1 mb one month earlier. Preliminary data indicate that inventories rose counter‐seasonally by 14.0 mb over September, led by a steep 11.7 mb build in middle distillates.

OMR subscribers this month also benefitted from a summary of breakeven prices and world oil production as well as in-depth articles on the effect of the Middle East's refining boom on product flows, Indian pricing reform for diesel and capacity oil storage in Singapore.

iea.org

Tags: IEA, OIL, PRICE,