OPEC: STOP PANIC
Everyone in the oil market should stop panicking because crude supply and demand will return to equilibrium, OPEC's Secretary-General said.
Members of OPEC, who pump about 40 percent of the world's oil, aren't waging a price war and haven't demanded an emergency response to the plunge in crude futures, Abdalla El-Badri said at the Oil & Money conference in London yesterday. While the direction of oil prices, which have collapsed about 25 percent since June, remains unclear in the short term, they will have to rebound to guarantee long-term supply, he said.
"We don't see really fundamental changes in the supply side or the demand side," El-Badri told reporters during a briefing at the event. "Unfortunately everyone is panicking. The press is panicking, consumers are panicking. We really should think and see how this will develop."
Crude collapsed into a bear market this month as Saudi Arabia and other producers deepened price discounts for their oil. U.S. crude production climbed to the highest level in at least 31 years last week as the shale boom moved the country closer to energy independence. Global consumption will increase this year at the slowest pace since 2009, according to the International Energy Agency.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries itself doesn't face a "critical situation" as a result of the price slump, El-Badri said. OPEC's collective output in 2015 will remain close to this year's level of about 30 million barrels a day, he said.
This is in line with the 12-member group's current output target, which it will review at its next meeting on Nov. 27 in Vienna. "We are not seeing a clear picture of what the direction of price will be, even in November," El-Badri said.
Producers of tight oil from shale rock formations will suffer first from crude's collapse because they need higher prices to keep pumping profitably, El-Badri said. About 50 percent of current shale output will be curbed if oil remains at current levels, he said.
"If the price is declining a lot of the investment will go out of the market," El-Badri said. "Deep areas, remote areas, many areas will be affected and this includes tight oil."
U.S. output rose 0.4 percent last week to 8.97 million barrels a day, the most since at least January 1983, according to data available from the Energy Information Administration.
Citigroup Inc. and Commerzbank AG have said that price discounts offered by OPEC members for November shipments indicate they're competing to defend market share. El-Badri said the price changes are simply a reflection of market conditions, not a battle for customers.
"There is no price war," El-Badri said. "Our countries are following the market. People are selling according to the market price."
OPEC may have a relaxed attitude because prices above $80 a barrel are still high enough to fund members' spending needs, Christopher Bake, member of the executive committee and head of origination at Vitol Group, the world's largest oil trader, said at the conference.
"Obviously there's a lot of budgetary pressure at $80 or below, but I think a lot of the larger OPEC producers are going to take a little bit of a wait-and-see attitude," Bake said in an interview in London. "Short term, I don't expect much of a reaction from them."
Brent crude for December settlement fell 68 cents to $86.44 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 9:55 a.m. in London. West Texas Intermediate dropped 79 cents to $81.41.
Some members say they have been affected by oil's collapse. Iran's revenue from crude sales, the OPEC member's most important export, dropped 30 percent because of the recent fall in global oil prices, President Hassan Rouhani said in remarks to the nation's parliament that were published yesterday by the Oil Ministry's news website Shana.
Representatives of OPEC remain divided over the need for action. The group's output target should be cut to 29.5 million barrels a day, Libyan OPEC governor Samir Kamal said by e-mail on Oct. 27. Conversely, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Ali Al-Omair said "there is no room for countries to reduce their production," according to comments reported by state news agency Kuna on Oct. 13.
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IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
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