GLOBAL OIL DEMAND 2015: 93.6 MB/D
Global oil supply inched up by 35 000 barrels per day (35 kb/d) in October to 94.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), with total supply 2.7 mb/d more than a year earlier as higher year-on-year OPEC production added to non‐OPEC supply growth of 1.8 mb/d. Month-on-month, OPEC output eased by 150 kb/d in October, to 30.60 mb/d, but remained well above the organisation's official 30 mb/d supply target for a sixth month running. The group's oil ministers meet on 27 November against the backdrop of a 30% price decline since they last gathered, in June. Non‐OPEC production growth is forecast to ease to 1.3 mb/d for 2015.
Global oil demand estimates for 2014 and 2015 were unchanged at 92.4 mb/d and 93.6 mb/d, respectively. Projected growth will increase from a five‐year annual low of 680 kb/d in 2014 to an estimated 1.1 mb/d next year as the macroeconomic backdrop is expected to improve.
OECD industry oil stocks built counter‐seasonally by 12.6 mb in September. Their deficit versus average levels, after ballooning earlier this year, fell to its narrowest since April 2013. Preliminary data show that despite a 4.2 mb draw, stocks swung into a surplus to average levels in October for the first time since March 2013.
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REUTERS - Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 72 cents at $61.49 per barrel at 1020 GMT, having fallen by 1.5 percent on Tuesday, its largest one-day drop in a month. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was at $55.12 per barrel, down 58 cents.
BLOOMBERG - Prices dropped during the session as the International Energy Agency said the recent recovery in oil prices, coupled with milder-than-normal winter weather, is slowing demand growth. The worsening outlook for consumption dampened some of the enthusiasm that OPEC and its allies will extend supply curbs.
Global energy needs rise more slowly than in the past but still expand by 30% between today and 2040. This is the equivalent of adding another China and India to today’s global demand.
Product exports have grown significantly over the past several years and are expected to continue to grow as Russian refineries add capacity to produce more high-quality products.