GLOBAL PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION
EIA estimates that global consumption grew by 1.2 million bbl/d in 2013, exceeding 91 million bbl/d by the second half of the year. EIA expects global consumption to grow at a similar pace of nearly 1.3 million bbl/d in 2014 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2015, exceeding 93 million bbl/d by the second half of 2015.
Non-OECD countries account for almost all consumption growth over the forecast period. China is the leading contributor to projected global consumption growth, with consumption increasing by 400,000 bbl/d in 2014 and 430,000 bbl/d in 2015. However, China's economic and oil consumption growth have moderated compared with levels before 2012, when GDP growth exceeded 9% and annual oil consumption growth averaged 790,000 bbl/d from 2009 through 2011.
On the other hand, EIA expects OECD consumption to remain relatively flat over the next two years. Projected consumption declines in the OECD are led by Japan and Europe. EIA expects Japan's oil consumption to decrease annually by about 120,000 bbl/d in both 2014 and 2015, as the country continues to increase natural gas consumption in the electricity sector and returns some nuclear power plants to service. EIA projects that OECD Europe's consumption continues to decline by 100,000 bbl/d in 2014 and another 50,000 bbl/d in 2015, albeit at a slower pace compared with previous years. U.S. oil consumption growth, which was 380,000 bbl/d in 2013, is expected to slow to 30,000 bbl/d in 2014 and 60,000 bbl/d in 2015.
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