OPEC: SMALL UP
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report:
World economic growth for 2013 and 2014 remains at 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively. The 2014 forecast for the OECD is unchanged at 2.0%, compared to 1.3% in 2013. In contrast, China's growth for 2014 has been revised down slightly to 7.6%, just below estimated 2013
growth of 7.7%. India's forecast remains at 5.6% for 2014 and 4.7% for 2013. The ongoing trend of accelerating economic growth in the OECD amid a slowdown in emerging economies has been confirmed by the latest data.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth for 2013 was revised up by 70 tb/d to stand at 1.05 mb/d. Upward revisions were seen in OECD Americas and Europe, reflecting stronger-thanexpected seasonal demand for 4Q13. Africa was also higher due to baseline effects. For 2014, global oil demand is seen rising by 1.14 mb/d, following an upward revision of 50 tb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.31 mb/d in 2014, following estimated growth of 1.33 mb/d in 2013. Growth is seen mainly coming from the US, Canada, and Brazil, while Norway, UK and Mexico are seen declining. In February, OPEC crude
production, according to secondary sources, averaged 30.12 mb/d, up 259 tb/d from a month ago.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude for 2013 and 2014 was revised up by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 30.0 mb/d and 29.7 mb/d, respectively. Compared to the previous year, demand for OPEC crude is expected to decline by 0.3 mb/d in 2014, following an estimated drop of 0.5 mb/d in 2013.
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AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.
REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.
IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.