OPEC: SMALL UP
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report:
World economic growth for 2013 and 2014 remains at 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively. The 2014 forecast for the OECD is unchanged at 2.0%, compared to 1.3% in 2013. In contrast, China's growth for 2014 has been revised down slightly to 7.6%, just below estimated 2013
growth of 7.7%. India's forecast remains at 5.6% for 2014 and 4.7% for 2013. The ongoing trend of accelerating economic growth in the OECD amid a slowdown in emerging economies has been confirmed by the latest data.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth for 2013 was revised up by 70 tb/d to stand at 1.05 mb/d. Upward revisions were seen in OECD Americas and Europe, reflecting stronger-thanexpected seasonal demand for 4Q13. Africa was also higher due to baseline effects. For 2014, global oil demand is seen rising by 1.14 mb/d, following an upward revision of 50 tb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.31 mb/d in 2014, following estimated growth of 1.33 mb/d in 2013. Growth is seen mainly coming from the US, Canada, and Brazil, while Norway, UK and Mexico are seen declining. In February, OPEC crude
production, according to secondary sources, averaged 30.12 mb/d, up 259 tb/d from a month ago.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude for 2013 and 2014 was revised up by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 30.0 mb/d and 29.7 mb/d, respectively. Compared to the previous year, demand for OPEC crude is expected to decline by 0.3 mb/d in 2014, following an estimated drop of 0.5 mb/d in 2013.
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REUTERS - India’s natural gas consumption is expected to rise to 70 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2022 and 100 bcm by 2030, according to a government think tank and the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, up from 50 bcm now. India burns just 7 percent of what top user the United States consumes in a year with about a quarter of India’s population.
Norway, which relies on oil and gas for about a fifth of economic output, would be less vulnerable to declining crude prices without its fund investing in the industry, the central bank said Thursday. The divestment would mark the second major step in scrubbing the world’s biggest wealth fund of climate risk, after it sold most of its coal stocks.
WSJ - Light, sweet crude for December delivery rose $1.41, or 2.6%, to $56.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, snapping a three-session losing streak. Brent, the global benchmark, advanced $1.36, or 2.2%, to $62.72 a barrel.
U.S. Rig Count is up 327 rigs from last year's count of 588, with oil rigs up 267, gas rigs up 61, and miscellaneous rigs down 1 to 1. Canada Rig Count is up 24 rigs from last year's count of 184, with oil rigs up 9 and gas rigs up 15.