APRIL: MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT
World Oil Demand
In 2013, world oil demand remained relatively unchanged, with total world oil demand growth standing at 1.05 mb/d to average 90.01 mb/d. For 2014, growth is expected to be around 1.14 mb/d, unchanged from last month's forecast of 91.15 mb/d. The bulk of the growth will be seen in non-OECD, as most of the OECD is still in contraction.
World Oil Supply
Preliminary data indicates the global oil supply decreased by 712 tb/d to average 90.63 mb/d in March 2014 compared with the previous month. The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production decreased slightly to 32.7% in March. Estimates are based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs while estimates for OPEC crude production come from secondary sources.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at 30.0 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than the 2012 level. In 2014, the demand for OPEC crude saw a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d to average 29.6 mb/d, 0.4 mb/d less than last year.
Forecast for 2014
Demand for OPEC crude for 2014 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report, reflecting the upward adjustment of non-OPEC supply as world oil demand remained unchanged. Within quarters, the first and the third quarters were revised down by 0.1 mb/d, while the second and the fourth quarters remained unchanged versus last report. The demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 29.6 mb/d in 2014, a decrease of 0.4 mb/d from the previous year. The first and the second quarters are estimated to show a decline of 0.5 mb/d each, versus the same period last year. The third quarter is expected to see negative growth of 0.2 mb/d, while the fourth quarter is forecast to drop by 0.3 mb/d versus the same quarter last year.
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AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.
REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.
IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.