APRIL: MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT
World Oil Demand
In 2013, world oil demand remained relatively unchanged, with total world oil demand growth standing at 1.05 mb/d to average 90.01 mb/d. For 2014, growth is expected to be around 1.14 mb/d, unchanged from last month's forecast of 91.15 mb/d. The bulk of the growth will be seen in non-OECD, as most of the OECD is still in contraction.
World Oil Supply
Preliminary data indicates the global oil supply decreased by 712 tb/d to average 90.63 mb/d in March 2014 compared with the previous month. The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production decreased slightly to 32.7% in March. Estimates are based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs while estimates for OPEC crude production come from secondary sources.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at 30.0 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than the 2012 level. In 2014, the demand for OPEC crude saw a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d to average 29.6 mb/d, 0.4 mb/d less than last year.
Forecast for 2014
Demand for OPEC crude for 2014 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report, reflecting the upward adjustment of non-OPEC supply as world oil demand remained unchanged. Within quarters, the first and the third quarters were revised down by 0.1 mb/d, while the second and the fourth quarters remained unchanged versus last report. The demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 29.6 mb/d in 2014, a decrease of 0.4 mb/d from the previous year. The first and the second quarters are estimated to show a decline of 0.5 mb/d each, versus the same period last year. The third quarter is expected to see negative growth of 0.2 mb/d, while the fourth quarter is forecast to drop by 0.3 mb/d versus the same quarter last year.
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BLOOMBERG - As Saudi Arabia led OPEC’s output cuts this year to shrink a global glut, it’s lost out on market share in the world’s biggest energy consumer. Russia in September retained the top Chinese supplier spot for the seventh straight month, while the kingdom was third.
PLATTS - The quality of Russia's key Urals crude exports towards Europe will continue to fall next year as more of the country's low-sulfur oil flows are diverted eastward to China, Russian national oil pipeline operator Transneft warned.
FT - OCI — the world’s third-largest polysilicon maker by capacity and South Korea’s biggest — this month reported a 3,373 per cent increase in operating profit to Won78.7bn ($72m) for the July-September quarter, its best performance in five years. Rival Hanwha Chemical saw third-quarter net profit jump 25 per cent to a record Won252bn.
U.S. Rig Count is up 330 rigs from last year's count of 593, with oil rigs up 273, gas rigs up 58, and miscellaneous rigs down 1 to 0. Canada Rig Count is up 41 rigs from last year's count of 174, with oil rigs up 13, gas rigs up 30, and miscellaneous rigs down 2 to 2.