OPEC: OIL ENOUGH
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Thursday rising non-OPEC oil production will be sufficient to meet growing demand in the second half of the year, dismissing concerns over oil supply in the coming months.
In its monthly report on the oil market, OPEC—which produces one in every three barrels of oil consumed globally—forecast non-OPEC oil supply would rise by 1.2 million barrels a day in the next six months.
The rate of growth is slightly slower than in previous months but should still be sufficient to meet growing demand when combined with OPEC output and healthy stock levels, the oil-producers' group said.
In a reflection of its view that the market is balanced, OPEC decided to maintain its official output quota at 30 million barrels a day at its semiannual meeting in Vienna on Wednesday.
Last month, however, the International Energy Agency warned that OPEC could struggle to keep up with rising oil demand as many of its member countries contend with significant supply disruptions. Output from Libya has dwindled to less than 200,000 barrels a day this year amid strikes, protests and conflicts between rival factions in the country. Iran's oil production is still hobbled by Western sanctions, while a growing insurgency in Iraq has cut off exports from its northern oil fields.
According to the IEA, OPEC will still need to boost its output by 800,000 barrels a day in the second half of the year to meet demand.
OPEC's output has hovered below 30 million barrels a day for most of the year, falling to 29.4 million barrels a day in March. It has since rebounded, rising to 29.8 million barrels a day last month, but remains below the 30.3 million barrels a day the group predicts it will need to produce to meet demand in the second half of the year.
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IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.