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2014-07-14 19:02:00

IEA: OIL MARKET 2014-15

IEA: OIL MARKET 2014-15

Oil futures surged in mid‐June by $5/bbl to a nine-month high of more than $115/bbl for Brent as Islamist forces gained ground in Iraq, but later reversed their gains on confidence that Baghdad's southern fields would remain untouched and improved prospects for a recovery in Libyan exports. Brent last traded at $108/bbl, WTI at $102/bbl.

OPEC supplies were virtually unchanged in June at 30.03 million barrels per day (mb/d), as lower Iraqi production offset gains in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Angola. The 'call' on OPEC for 2H14 was cut by 350 000 barrels per day (350 kb/d) to 30.6 mb/d on improved non‐OPEC supply and lower demand, and is forecast to dip to 29.8 mb/d in 2015 from 29.9 mb/d in 2014.

Non‐OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2015, down slightly on 2013 and 2014 forecast levels. Global supplies were largely unchanged month‐on‐month in June, at 92.6 mb/d, but 995 kb/d higher than a year ago. Annual non‐OPEC output growth of 1.7 mb/d more than offset OPEC declines of 765 kb/d.

Global oil demand growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.4 mb/d in 2015 from 1.2 mb/d in 2014, as macroeconomic conditions improve. The estimate of 2014 demand has been trimmed by 130 kb/d to 92.7 mb/d following weaker‐than‐expected mid‐year economic data.

Global refinery crude runs dipped below year‐earlier levels in June, for the first time since October. Planned and unplanned outages, capacity rationalisation and weak margins cut runs by 0.9 mb/d on the year, to 76.8 mb/d. The 2Q14 estimate has been lowered by 0.3 mb/d, to 76.2 mb/d, while the 3Q14 forecast is unchanged, at 77.8 mb/d.

OECD commercial oil inventories built by a steeper‐than‐usual 44.2 mb in May, to 2 639 mb. Their deficit to the five‐year average narrowed to 69.6 mb from a revised 106.1 mb at end‐April. Refined products covered 29.0 days of demand at end‐May, up 0.4 days on the month. Preliminary data show that OECD stocks rose by 8.3 mb in June.

iea.org

Tags: IEA, OIL, MARKET, BRENT, WTI, OPEC, OECD, CRUDE, DEMAND, SUPPLY,

Chronicle:

IEA: OIL MARKET 2014-15
2018, July, 16, 10:35:00

CHINA'S INVESTMENT FOR NIGERIA: $14+3 BLN

AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.

IEA: OIL MARKET 2014-15
2018, July, 16, 10:30:00

LIBYA'S OIL DOWN 160 TBD

REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.

IEA: OIL MARKET 2014-15
2018, July, 16, 10:25:00

BAHRAIN'S GDP UP 3.2%

IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.

IEA: OIL MARKET 2014-15
2018, July, 16, 10:20:00

NIGERIA'S GDP UP 2%

IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.

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