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2014-07-02 18:50:00

IRAN: OIL EVEN LESS

IRAN: OIL EVEN LESS

Iran's crude oil exports dropped in June after a spike in May, yet sales were still above the level allowed by an interim deal aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear programme, according to sources who track tanker movements.

Under the agreement signed in November between Iran and six world powers, which came into effect in January, Iran's exports should average 1 million barrels per day (bpd) through to July 20.

Iran's oil exports slipped to 1.21 million bpd in June, from 1.33 million bpd in May, one of the sources said.

"Total exports are about 10 percent down month-on-month as China and India have taken less," the source said.

"Exports in June to Japan and Turkey have been firm and South Korea has taken more, making up for lower sales to that destination in May."

A second source said Iranian crude exports fell by 100,000 bpd to almost 1.2 million bpd in June from May's high levels.

China, Tehran's largest oil client, has since late 2013 been stepping up purchases from the OPEC country. China's Iranian crude oil imports expanded 36 percent in May, or 757,900 bpd, from a year ago to the second highest on record, customs data showed last week.

Though higher exports since late 2013 have bolstered Iran's coffers, officials in U.S. President Barack Obama's administration have said they expect Iran's oil sales to average "approximately" 1 million bpd over the entire six-month period under the agreed deal, which expires on July 20 but can be extended for up to six months.

BOLDER IRAN

"Iran is increasingly emboldened to export its oil," said Mark Dubowitz of U.S.-based independent think-tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

"The Obama administration already has sent the message that it won't crack down on Iran's excess crude oil sales, condensates exports, or its transfer of crude oil to (Syrian President Bashar al-) Assad despite congressional demands," he added.

The U.S. administration has argued that condensates, a premium-price form of very light oil found at natural gas fields and mostly used to make plastics, do not count as crude oil; that Iranian gifts of oil to Syria are not "sales" and so also do not count; and that Iran is allowed to sell between 1 million and 1.1 million bpd under the deal, a range slightly above the White House's public estimate.

The extra supply is not unwelcome in the global market at a time of concern about flows from Iraq.

"The U.S. authorities appear to have been very tolerant of rising Iranian condensate supplies, which have boosted observed imports of Iranian oil by Asian buyers," a senior executive at an oil company said.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Iran this week it still had to prove its nuclear ambitions were peaceful as the latest round of atomic talks with world powers was due to start in Vienna on Wednesday as the July 20 deadline for an agreement loomed.

In Tehran, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in a speech Western sanctions were already crumbling.

"U.S. negotiators seem so eager for a nuclear deal that they appear willing to steadily loosen the once crippling restrictions on Iran's oil lifeline even before winning the critical concessions," the FDD's Dubowitz said.

reuters.com

Tags: IRAN, OIL

Chronicle:

IRAN: OIL EVEN LESS
2018, June, 18, 14:00:00

U.S. IS BETTER

IMF - Within the next few years, the U.S. economy is expected to enter its longest expansion in recorded history. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the approved increase in spending are providing a significant boost to the economy. We forecast growth of close to 3 percent this year but falling from that level over the medium-term. In my discussions with Secretary Mnuchin he was clear that he regards our medium-term outlook as too pessimistic. Frankly, I hope he is right. That would be good for both the U.S. and the world economy.

IRAN: OIL EVEN LESS
2018, June, 18, 13:55:00

U.S. ECONOMY UP

IMF - The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy is one of strong growth and job creation. Unemployment is already near levels not seen since the late 1960s and growth is set to accelerate, aided by a near-term fiscal stimulus, a welcome recovery of private investment, and supportive financial conditions. These positive outturns have supported, and been reinforced by, a favorable external environment with a broad-based pick up in global activity. Next year, the U.S. economy is expected to mark the longest expansion in its recorded history. The balance of evidence suggests that the U.S. economy is beyond full employment.

IRAN: OIL EVEN LESS
2018, June, 18, 13:50:00

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN 0.1%

U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing production fell 0.7 percent in May, largely because truck assemblies were disrupted by a major fire at a parts supplier. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output moved down 0.2 percent. The index for mining rose 1.8 percent, its fourth consecutive month of growth; the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 107.3 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.5 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 77.9 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

IRAN: OIL EVEN LESS
2018, June, 18, 13:45:00

SOUTH AFRICA: NO BENEFITS

IMF - South Africa’s potential is significant, yet growth over the past five years has not benefitted from the global recovery. The economy is globally positioned, sophisticated, and diversified, and several sectors—agribusiness, mining, manufacturing, and services—have capacity for expansion. Combined with strong institutions and a young workforce, opportunities are vast. However, several constraints have held growth back. Policy uncertainty and a regulatory environment not conducive to private investment have resulted in GDP growth rates that have not kept up with those of population growth, reducing income per capita, and hurting disproportionately the poor.

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