Здравствуйте. Вся информация этого сайта бесплатна. Вы можете сделать пожертвование и поддержать наше развитие. Спасибо.

Hello. All information of this site is free of charge. You can make a donation and support our development. Thank you.

2014-09-11 18:30:00

EIA: 2040 RISE 38%

EIA: 2040 RISE 38%

In the 2014 edition of its International Energy Outlook (IEO2014), the US Energy Information Administration projected world liquid fuels consumption to rise 38% by 2040. The agency also pointed out that world markets for petroleum and other liquid fuels have entered a period of dynamic change—in supply and demand.

"The potential for growth in demand for liquid fuels is focused on the emerging economies of China, India, and the Middle East, while liquid fuels demand in the US, Europe, and other regions with well-established oil markets seems to have peaked," EIA said.

In countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, demand growth has moderated as key economies, including China, India, and Brazil, have seen slower economic growth and correspondingly slower growth in liquids demand compared with the past 2 decades.

Liquids consumption among OECD countries, which reached a peak of 50 million b/d in 2005, has generally been trending downward since that time, reflecting both slowed economic growth and rising energy efficiency in the transportation sector.

New supplies of oil from tight and shale resources, beginning in North America and, eventually, in other parts of the world, have raised optimism for significant new sources of global liquids. There is also hope that recent legislative changes in Mexico will reverse that country's recent trend of slowly declining oil production.

Outside North America, the potential for large production increases in Brazil, Argentina, and elsewhere could help ensure the availability of liquid fuels supplies for many years, according to EIA's forecast.

IEO2014 projections of future liquids balances include two broad categories: crude and lease condensate and other liquid fuels. Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). Other liquids refer to natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids), gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, kerogen (i.e., oil shale), and refinery gain.

As a result of new crude pipeline construction and crude pipeline flow reversals in the US, the wide spread between the West Texas Intermediate spot price and the North Sea Brent price eventually decreased in 2013 and 2014 from a high of about $30/bbl in 2011.

EIA expects the WTI-Brent spread to continue to decrease over time. The recent decision by the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security to allow exports of some lease condensates after processing also has the potential to further reduce the spread between the Brent price and the price of domestic production streams.

Since July 2012, North Sea Brent prices have generally remained $100-115/bbl in nominal terms. Growing liquids supplies from the US and Canada has largely offset by supply disruptions in other oil-producing regions, notably in the Middle East and North Africa.

EIA estimates that unplanned crude oil production outages have averaged 2.7 million b/d over the past 2 years and generally have trended upward, from 1.8 million b/d in May 2012 to about 3.5 million b/d this past May. Libya and Iran, both members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as non-OPEC countries such as South Sudan and Syria have accounted for a sizeable portion of the unplanned outages.

"It is difficult to predict when the supplies may return, given the significant geopolitical difficulties faced by these producers. This adds considerable uncertainty to the mid-term and long-term projections," EIA said.






EIA: 2040 RISE 38%
2018, July, 16, 10:35:00


AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.

EIA: 2040 RISE 38%
2018, July, 16, 10:30:00


REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.

EIA: 2040 RISE 38%
2018, July, 16, 10:25:00


IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.

EIA: 2040 RISE 38%
2018, July, 16, 10:20:00


IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.

All Publications »