Здравствуйте. Вся информация этого сайта бесплатна. Вы можете сделать пожертвование и поддержать наше развитие. Спасибо.

Hello. All information of this site is free of charge. You can make a donation and support our development. Thank you.

2014-09-19 17:55:00



Russian gas producer Gazprom is likely to record its lowest output this year since its creation a quarter of a century ago after cutting supplies to Ukraine and losing market share to domestic rivals.

Gazprom reduced its 2014 production forecast this week, and analysts regard even this figure as overoptimistic due to Moscow's battle with Kiev over gas prices and its role in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Falling output could put further pressure on the economy, which relies heavily on oil and gas sales and is already slowing to a crawl partly as Western sanctions start to bite.

Gazprom chief Alexei Miller told President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday that he expected production this year to be 463 billion cubic metres (bcm), a 6.7 percent decrease from the 496.4 bcm announced by Gazprom at a May presentation and down from 487.4 bcm produced last year.

Putin looked sanguine but analysts said the crisis in Ukraine and the Kremlin-controlled company's decision in June to cut gas supplies to its second-largest market after Germany were taking their toll. Miller's forecast is slightly above Gazprom's record low hit in 2009 during the global financial crisis, but the analysts expect actual 2014 production to be significantly lower than this.

The gas row is part of the broader crisis in Ukraine, which erupted earlier this year and persists, even though a ceasefire in the east has given some respite from fighting between pro-Russian rebels and government troops.

Russian gas exports are exempt from the U.S. and European Union sanctions. But Gazprom's ability to boost production in the rest of this year is limited as European customers have already largely filled up their gas storage, fearing that Russian supplies which flow via Ukraine might be disrupted by the crisis.

According to Sberbank CIS data, Europe storage capacity is 91 percent full, up from 73 percent a year ago.


Gazprom's share of the lucrative domestic market is also shrinking as other producers, such as Novatek, Rosneft and Lukoil are more flexible in setting prices and other contractual terms with customers.

According to Sberbank CIB figures, Gazprom's rivals have almost doubled their share of the Russian gas market to 35 percent this year from 18 percent in 2009, when Gazprom's production fell sharply to a low of 461.5 bcm.

Created out of the Soviet gas ministry in 1989, Gazprom has been slower than its rivals to respond to a changing market.

Rosneft chief Igor Sechin, a long standing Putin ally, has long called for Gazprom to raise its game. Last year Rosneft, together with Novatek, which is co-owned by businessman Gennady Timchenko, broke Gazprom's monopoly on liquefied natural gas exports, dealing another blow to the company's status.

The analysts at Sberbank CIB forecast Gazprom's gas production at less than 450 bcm this year, a historic low, after its output reached 282.5 bcm in January-August

"Apart from Ukraine, domestic consumption has been increasing very slowly, independent players are more aggressive, while the pie is getting smaller," Moscow-based UBS analyst Constantine Cherepanov said.

"It is easier for consumers to work with Novatek, its contractual terms are milder, and the take-or-pay clause is not that harsh," he said, adding that UBS expected Gazprom to produce 454 bcm this year.

This is a far cry from the almost 1 trillion cubic metres, which Gazprom said it expected to produce by 2010 when it was first formed two years before the collapse of the Soviet Union.




2018, June, 18, 14:00:00


IMF - Within the next few years, the U.S. economy is expected to enter its longest expansion in recorded history. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the approved increase in spending are providing a significant boost to the economy. We forecast growth of close to 3 percent this year but falling from that level over the medium-term. In my discussions with Secretary Mnuchin he was clear that he regards our medium-term outlook as too pessimistic. Frankly, I hope he is right. That would be good for both the U.S. and the world economy.

2018, June, 18, 13:55:00


IMF - The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy is one of strong growth and job creation. Unemployment is already near levels not seen since the late 1960s and growth is set to accelerate, aided by a near-term fiscal stimulus, a welcome recovery of private investment, and supportive financial conditions. These positive outturns have supported, and been reinforced by, a favorable external environment with a broad-based pick up in global activity. Next year, the U.S. economy is expected to mark the longest expansion in its recorded history. The balance of evidence suggests that the U.S. economy is beyond full employment.

2018, June, 18, 13:50:00


U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing production fell 0.7 percent in May, largely because truck assemblies were disrupted by a major fire at a parts supplier. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output moved down 0.2 percent. The index for mining rose 1.8 percent, its fourth consecutive month of growth; the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 107.3 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.5 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 77.9 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

2018, June, 18, 13:45:00


IMF - South Africa’s potential is significant, yet growth over the past five years has not benefitted from the global recovery. The economy is globally positioned, sophisticated, and diversified, and several sectors—agribusiness, mining, manufacturing, and services—have capacity for expansion. Combined with strong institutions and a young workforce, opportunities are vast. However, several constraints have held growth back. Policy uncertainty and a regulatory environment not conducive to private investment have resulted in GDP growth rates that have not kept up with those of population growth, reducing income per capita, and hurting disproportionately the poor.

All Publications »