Здравствуйте. Вся информация этого сайта бесплатна. Вы можете сделать пожертвование и поддержать наше развитие. Спасибо.

Hello. All information of this site is free of charge. You can make a donation and support our development. Thank you.

2015-01-11 14:45:00



Plunging oil prices are giving a bump to consumer and business spending around the world -- just not enough to increase global growth forecasts.

A darkening outlook in emerging markets including China, Russia and Brazil and geopolitical risks such as Greece's possible exit from the euro are overshadowing the benefits from lower energy costs. The median estimate for 2015 world expansion from economists surveyed by Bloomberg News has been unchanged since October, when it fell to 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent.

"People are cautious in a world where they see other risks skewed to the downside," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. "There's still a question mark out there."

Economists' reluctance to boost estimates underscores the fragility of global growth after four straight years of below-forecast expansion. JPMorgan is a case in point: It estimates that sustained $60-a-barrel crude oil prices will add 0.5 percent to global gross domestic product, yet its Jan. 2 world expansion forecast of 2.9 percent for 2015 is down from a 3.3 percent estimate in July.

The U.S., with a 3.2 percent expansion estimate, is the only one among the world's 10 biggest economies that JPMorgan now sees growing more quickly than expected in July. The bank projects emerging markets will grow 3.9 percent this year, down from its July forecast of 4.9 percent, reflecting markdowns for nations including Russia, Brazil and India.

Global Stocks

Oil's 55 percent decline since June, the steepest rout since the global financial crisis, has benefited haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries while depressing the currencies of crude exporters such as Russia. The MSCI All-Country World Index of stocks has dropped about 3.6 percent in the same period.

Data released today highlighted the relative strength of the U.S. in the global economy. U.S. employment rose more than forecast in December and the jobless rate declined to 5.6 percent, capping the best year for the labor market since 1999.

Meanwhile, Germany's industrial production unexpectedly fell in November from the previous month as energy output slumped, while China's factory-gate prices in December extended a record stretch of year-over-year declines with the sharpest drop since 2012.

Not 'Manna'

Lower oil prices may not be the "manna from heaven" some forecasters are expecting, HSBC Holdings Plc economists Stephen King and Karen Ward said in a report Thursday. High levels of debt in developed nations are likely to blunt the benefits of monetary easing, while declines in oil and other commodities are straining emerging countries, they said.

"The global economy was losing momentum and disinflation was building, meaning pricing power was being lost, before anything started to happen in the oil market," Ward, who's based in London, said in a phone interview.

Federal Reserve officials last month saw a mixed bag in oil prices and the state of the global economy, according to minutes of their December meeting, released this week in Washington.

While some policy makers said the drop in oil would have a positive impact on overseas employment and output, many officials "regarded the international situation as an important source of downside risks," especially if oil's decline and weak growth abroad affect financial markets, the minutes said.

IMF Estimate

The International Monetary Fund estimates that declining oil prices will increase global output by a range of 0.3 percent to 0.7 percent this year by boosting household incomes and lowering input costs for businesses, according to a blog post last month by chief economist Olivier Blanchard and Rabah Arezki, the head of the fund's commodities research.

Yet Blanchard and Arezki gave a disclaimer in their blog, saying that the estimates of the impact from oil's drop don't "represent a forecast for the state of the world economy in 2015 and beyond." The IMF will release an update to its World Economic Outlook later this month.

The fund's last forecast in October was for global expansion of 3.8 percent this year, down from a 4 percent estimate given in July.

If low oil prices persist for years, that could herald a prolonged boom in the global economy, said Eric Green, head of U.S. economic research at TD Securities USA LLC in New York.

Avoiding Flareups

"Provided Europe doesn't go back into recession or you don't have some flareup of massive geopolitical risk or some financial issue, you are going to see global forecasts revised incrementally higher," Green said in a phone interview.

Much will depend on whether the drop is driven by excess supply or softening global demand. The IMF estimates weak demand accounts for as little as 20 percent of oil's decline. The more that's a force, the less the world economy will benefit from lower crude prices, according to the Washington-based lender.

"If the drop in oil prices were only a supply shock, you'd most likely see a relatively strong boost to global growth," said Gregory Daco, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics USA in New York. "Some of the weakness in oil prices is being driven by relatively modest global demand, which is why you're not seeing in your surveys many outright increases in global growth."




2017, December, 15, 12:50:00


LUKOIL - The plan is based on the conservative $50 per barrel oil price scenario. Sustainable hydrocarbon production growth is planned in the Upstream business segment along with the growth in the share of high-margin projects in the overall production. In the Downstream business segment, the focus is on the improvement of operating efficiency and selective investment projects targeted at the enhancement of product slate.

2017, December, 15, 12:45:00


BP - BP will acquire on completion a 43% equity share in Lightsource for a total consideration of $200 million, paid over three years. The great majority of this investment will fund Lightsource’s worldwide growth pipeline. The company will be renamed Lightsource BP and BP will have two seats on the board of directors.

2017, December, 13, 12:40:00


REUTERS - Brent crude was up 69 cents, or 1.1 percent, at $64.03 a barrel by 0743 GMT. It had settled down $1.35, or 2.1 percent, on Tuesday on a wave of profit-taking after news of a key North Sea pipeline shutdown helped send the global benchmark above $65 for the first time since mid-2015. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 45 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $57.59 a barrel.

2017, December, 13, 12:35:00


ROSATOM - On December 10, 2017, the construction start ceremony took place at the Akkuyu NPP site under a limited construction licence issued by the Turkish Atomic Energy Agency (TAEK). Director General of the ROSATOM Alexey Likhachev, and First Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Turkish Republic, Fatih Donmez, took part in the ceremony.

All Publications »