2035: GLOBAL ENERGY UP 37%
We project that by 2035 global energy consumption increases by 37% from today's levels with virtually all (96%) the growth in non-OECD countries and more than half coming from India and China.
World energy demand is projected to be 37% higher in 2035 with India and China accounting for half the growth. By sector, inputs to power generation account for nearly 60% of the growth.
Global energy intensity in 2035 is half of what it was in 1995 and 36% lower than 2013. However, global energy use per capita is projected to increase by 12%.
The US becomes energy self-sufficient by 2021. And by 2035 could be exporting 9% of its total energy supply. Meanwhile, China overtakes the EU as the world's largest importing country/region by 2025.
Russia remains the largest net exporter of energy with net exports meeting 4% of world energy demand in 2035. Europe remains the largest importer of natural gas while China becomes the world's largest oil importer.
By 2035, over 70% of carbon emissions are produced from the non-OECD, although per capita emissions in the non-OECD are still less than half the OECD level. Total carbon emissions increase by 25%.
Renewables (including biofuels) account for 8% of total energy onsumption in 2035, compared to just 3% today.
The fastest fuel growth is seen in renewables (6.3% p.a.). Nuclear (1.8% p.a.) and hydro-electric power (1.7% p.a.) grow faster than total energy. Among fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest (1.9% p.a.) with oil (0.8% p.a.) marginally ahead of coal (also 0.8% p.a, to one decimal place).
Consumption of liquid fuels (oil, biofuels and other liquids) rises to 111 Mb/d by 2035, driven by nonOECD transport and industry.
The US, Russia and Saudi Arabia supply over a third of global liquids output to 2035. OPEC's share of the global liquids market in 2035 is 40%, the same as in 2013.
Natural gas supply reaches nearly 500 Bcf/d by 2035, with the US accounting for nearly 25%. Increased usage in the power and industrial sectors account for over 80% of total demand growth.
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WNA - Apart from adding capacity, utilisation of existing plants has improved markedly since 2000. In the 1990s capacity factors averaged around 60%, but they have steadily improved since and in 2010, 2011 and 2014 were above 81%. Balakovo was the best plant in 2011 with 92.5%, and again in 2014 with 85.1%.
WNA - India has a flourishing and largely indigenous nuclear power programme and expects to have 14.6 GWe nuclear capacity on line by 2024 and 63 GWe by 2032. It aims to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050.
WNA - Mainland China has 38 nuclear power reactors in operation, about 20 under construction, and more about to start construction. The reactors under construction include some of the world's most advanced, to give a 70% increase of nuclear capacity to 58 GWe by 2020-21. Plans are for up to 150 GWe by 2030, and much more by 2050.
PLATTS - "The domestic uranium mining industry needs US government assistance to survive the foreign onslaught -- particularly from Russia and Kazakhstan -- that has undermined the US uranium industry while new players -- particularly China -- will soon make the situation worse," Energy Fuels and Ur-Energy said in a petition they jointly filed with the department.