2035: GLOBAL ENERGY UP 37%
We project that by 2035 global energy consumption increases by 37% from today's levels with virtually all (96%) the growth in non-OECD countries and more than half coming from India and China.
World energy demand is projected to be 37% higher in 2035 with India and China accounting for half the growth. By sector, inputs to power generation account for nearly 60% of the growth.
Global energy intensity in 2035 is half of what it was in 1995 and 36% lower than 2013. However, global energy use per capita is projected to increase by 12%.
The US becomes energy self-sufficient by 2021. And by 2035 could be exporting 9% of its total energy supply. Meanwhile, China overtakes the EU as the world's largest importing country/region by 2025.
Russia remains the largest net exporter of energy with net exports meeting 4% of world energy demand in 2035. Europe remains the largest importer of natural gas while China becomes the world's largest oil importer.
By 2035, over 70% of carbon emissions are produced from the non-OECD, although per capita emissions in the non-OECD are still less than half the OECD level. Total carbon emissions increase by 25%.
Renewables (including biofuels) account for 8% of total energy onsumption in 2035, compared to just 3% today.
The fastest fuel growth is seen in renewables (6.3% p.a.). Nuclear (1.8% p.a.) and hydro-electric power (1.7% p.a.) grow faster than total energy. Among fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest (1.9% p.a.) with oil (0.8% p.a.) marginally ahead of coal (also 0.8% p.a, to one decimal place).
Consumption of liquid fuels (oil, biofuels and other liquids) rises to 111 Mb/d by 2035, driven by nonOECD transport and industry.
The US, Russia and Saudi Arabia supply over a third of global liquids output to 2035. OPEC's share of the global liquids market in 2035 is 40%, the same as in 2013.
Natural gas supply reaches nearly 500 Bcf/d by 2035, with the US accounting for nearly 25%. Increased usage in the power and industrial sectors account for over 80% of total demand growth.
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There are more than a dozen LNG export projects currently being proposed to US regulators, though across the industry almost no final investment decisions have been announced over the last 18 months and some developers have delayed their decisions into 2018 or beyond. Few firm supply purchase agreements have been announced for the projects that have yet to commit to moving forward.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Canada's largest energy customer has boosted domestic oil production from less than four million barrels per day in 2008 to 9.2 million bpd now, while gas output has risen from 67 million cubic feet per day to 89 million cf/d.
Egypt’s fledgling solar industry attracted $1.8 billion of investment, largely from the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank’s International Finance Corp.
International Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $57.75 per barrel at 0733 GMT, up 58 cents from the previous close, after trading as high as $58.13. U.S. WTI crude was at $51.95 per barrel, up 50 cents. Earlier in the day, it traded as high as $52.22.