OPEC: OIL DEMAND UP 97 MBD

Some specific highlights are:

• Global energy demand is set to increase by almost 50% in the period to 2040, with the overall energy mix continuing to be led by fossil fuels at almost 78%;
• Combined, oil and gas are expected to supply around 53% of the global energy demand by 2040;
• Medium-term oil demand is revised upward, compared to the WOO 2014, rising above 97 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2020;
• Oil demand is projected to be at 110 mb/d by 2040;
• Long-term demand is dominated by the developing Asia region, which accounts for 70% of the increase by 2040;
• Non-OPEC liquids supply increases from 56.5 mb/d in 2014 to around 60 mb/d in 2020, a downward revision of 1 mb/d compared to the WOO 2014. By 2040, non-OPEC liquids supply falls below 60 mb/d;
• OPEC crude expands by 10 mb/d to a level of 40.7 mb/d by 2040 – an increase of 1 mb/d compared with last year's publication;
• The long-term value of the OPEC Reference Basket is assumed to rise from more than $70/b in 2020 to $95/b by 2040 (both in 2014 dollars). It is important to stress, however, that the assumed prices do not represent a price forecast or a desired price path. They are a working assumption for the Reference Case scenario;
• At the global level, oil-related investment required to cover future demand for oil over the forecast period 2015–2040 is estimated at almost $10 trillion, in 2014 prices;
• A review of existing refinery projects indicates that around 7 mb/d of new distillation capacity will be added globally in the period 2015–2020;
• Surplus refining capacity in the medium-term has eased over the past year; but the outlook continues to point to a period of competition for product markets and the need for additional closures remains;
• Required cumulative distillation capacity additions are projected to be around 20 mb/d by 2040.

opec.org

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