OPEC: OIL DEMAND UP 97 MBD
Some specific highlights are:
- Global energy demand is set to increase by almost 50% in the period to 2040, with the overall energy mix continuing to be led by fossil fuels at almost 78%;
- Combined, oil and gas are expected to supply around 53% of the global energy demand by 2040;
- Medium-term oil demand is revised upward, compared to the WOO 2014, rising above 97 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2020;
- Oil demand is projected to be at 110 mb/d by 2040;
- Long-term demand is dominated by the developing Asia region, which accounts for 70% of the increase by 2040;
- Non-OPEC liquids supply increases from 56.5 mb/d in 2014 to around 60 mb/d in 2020, a downward revision of 1 mb/d compared to the WOO 2014. By 2040, non-OPEC liquids supply falls below 60 mb/d;
- OPEC crude expands by 10 mb/d to a level of 40.7 mb/d by 2040 – an increase of 1 mb/d compared with last year's publication;
- The long-term value of the OPEC Reference Basket is assumed to rise from more than $70/b in 2020 to $95/b by 2040 (both in 2014 dollars). It is important to stress, however, that the assumed prices do not represent a price forecast or a desired price path. They are a working assumption for the Reference Case scenario;
- At the global level, oil-related investment required to cover future demand for oil over the forecast period 2015–2040 is estimated at almost $10 trillion, in 2014 prices;
- A review of existing refinery projects indicates that around 7 mb/d of new distillation capacity will be added globally in the period 2015–2020;
- Surplus refining capacity in the medium-term has eased over the past year; but the outlook continues to point to a period of competition for product markets and the need for additional closures remains;
- Required cumulative distillation capacity additions are projected to be around 20 mb/d by 2040.
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WNA - Apart from adding capacity, utilisation of existing plants has improved markedly since 2000. In the 1990s capacity factors averaged around 60%, but they have steadily improved since and in 2010, 2011 and 2014 were above 81%. Balakovo was the best plant in 2011 with 92.5%, and again in 2014 with 85.1%.
WNA - India has a flourishing and largely indigenous nuclear power programme and expects to have 14.6 GWe nuclear capacity on line by 2024 and 63 GWe by 2032. It aims to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050.
WNA - Mainland China has 38 nuclear power reactors in operation, about 20 under construction, and more about to start construction. The reactors under construction include some of the world's most advanced, to give a 70% increase of nuclear capacity to 58 GWe by 2020-21. Plans are for up to 150 GWe by 2030, and much more by 2050.
PLATTS - "The domestic uranium mining industry needs US government assistance to survive the foreign onslaught -- particularly from Russia and Kazakhstan -- that has undermined the US uranium industry while new players -- particularly China -- will soon make the situation worse," Energy Fuels and Ur-Energy said in a petition they jointly filed with the department.