OPEC: OIL DEMAND UP 97 MBD
Some specific highlights are:
- Global energy demand is set to increase by almost 50% in the period to 2040, with the overall energy mix continuing to be led by fossil fuels at almost 78%;
- Combined, oil and gas are expected to supply around 53% of the global energy demand by 2040;
- Medium-term oil demand is revised upward, compared to the WOO 2014, rising above 97 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2020;
- Oil demand is projected to be at 110 mb/d by 2040;
- Long-term demand is dominated by the developing Asia region, which accounts for 70% of the increase by 2040;
- Non-OPEC liquids supply increases from 56.5 mb/d in 2014 to around 60 mb/d in 2020, a downward revision of 1 mb/d compared to the WOO 2014. By 2040, non-OPEC liquids supply falls below 60 mb/d;
- OPEC crude expands by 10 mb/d to a level of 40.7 mb/d by 2040 – an increase of 1 mb/d compared with last year's publication;
- The long-term value of the OPEC Reference Basket is assumed to rise from more than $70/b in 2020 to $95/b by 2040 (both in 2014 dollars). It is important to stress, however, that the assumed prices do not represent a price forecast or a desired price path. They are a working assumption for the Reference Case scenario;
- At the global level, oil-related investment required to cover future demand for oil over the forecast period 2015–2040 is estimated at almost $10 trillion, in 2014 prices;
- A review of existing refinery projects indicates that around 7 mb/d of new distillation capacity will be added globally in the period 2015–2020;
- Surplus refining capacity in the medium-term has eased over the past year; but the outlook continues to point to a period of competition for product markets and the need for additional closures remains;
- Required cumulative distillation capacity additions are projected to be around 20 mb/d by 2040.
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IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.