OIL DEMAND GROWTH
Having bottomed‐out in the second quarter of 2014, global oil demand growth has since steadily risen, with year‐on‐year gains estimated at around 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) for the final quarter of last year and 1.0 mb/d for the current quarter, the IEA Oil Market Report for March informed subscribers. The forecast of demand growth for all of 2015 was raised by 75 kb/d to 1.0 mb/d, bringing global demand to an average 93.5 mb/d.
Global supply rose by 1.3 mb/d year‐on‐year to an estimated 94 mb/d in February, led by a 1.4 mb/d gain in non‐OPEC output. Declines in the US rig count have yet to dent North American output growth. Final December and preliminary current-quarter data show higher‐than‐expected US crude supply, raising the 2015 North American outlook.
OPEC crude output edged down by 90 kb/d in February to 30.22 mb/d, as losses in Libya and Iraq offset higher supply from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Angola. The slightly higher demand forecast has raised the "call" on OPEC crude for the second half of 2015 to 30.3 mb/d, above the group's official 30 mb/d target.
Global crude refinery throughputs estimates have been raised to 77.8 mb/d for the current quarter and 77.3 mb/d for the second quarter on sustained high margins and a slightly more robust oil demand outlook. Annual gains are forecast at about 1.0 mb/d for the first half of 2015, down from a sharp 2.2 mb/d in the final quarter of 2014 and in line with projected oil product demand growth.
OECD commercial stocks rose by a weaker‐than‐average 23.1 mb in January, to 2 733 mb, trimming their surplus to average levels to 60.3 mb. US crude stocks rose to a record 72 mb surplus. Preliminary data show stocks drew by a weak 8.8 mb in February as extended US crude builds offset steep weather‐related product draws.
The March OMR also features a focus on how bulging US stockpiles are blowing out the WTI-Brent spread as well as an evaluation of the spreading but so-far limited impact of labor unrest at US refineries. A third article available to OMR subscribers details where and how cheaper oil is facilitating the building of strategic reserves.
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WNA - Apart from adding capacity, utilisation of existing plants has improved markedly since 2000. In the 1990s capacity factors averaged around 60%, but they have steadily improved since and in 2010, 2011 and 2014 were above 81%. Balakovo was the best plant in 2011 with 92.5%, and again in 2014 with 85.1%.
WNA - India has a flourishing and largely indigenous nuclear power programme and expects to have 14.6 GWe nuclear capacity on line by 2024 and 63 GWe by 2032. It aims to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050.
WNA - Mainland China has 38 nuclear power reactors in operation, about 20 under construction, and more about to start construction. The reactors under construction include some of the world's most advanced, to give a 70% increase of nuclear capacity to 58 GWe by 2020-21. Plans are for up to 150 GWe by 2030, and much more by 2050.
PLATTS - "The domestic uranium mining industry needs US government assistance to survive the foreign onslaught -- particularly from Russia and Kazakhstan -- that has undermined the US uranium industry while new players -- particularly China -- will soon make the situation worse," Energy Fuels and Ur-Energy said in a petition they jointly filed with the department.