2015: OIL DEMAND IS HIGHER
In its April Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of 2015 global oil demand by 90,000 b/d to 93.6 million b/d, a gain of 1.1 million b/d on the year and a notable acceleration of the 700,000-b/d growth in 2014, as the global economy slowly gains momentum. Colder-than-year-earlier temperatures in most Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development economies in this year's first quarter also accounted for part of the upward revision.
Since bottoming out at a 5-year low of 270,000 b/d year-on-year in second-quarter 2014, global growth has steadily strengthened, rising to a one-and-a-half-year peak of 1.3 million b/d year-on-year in this year's first quarter.
Global supply rose an estimated 1 million b/d month-on-month in March to 95.2 million b/d. Supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries surged to 31.02 million b/d in March, up 890,000 b/d on February, as top exporter Saudi Arabia ramped up output towards record rates while Iraq and Libya rebounded strongly.
Estimated non-OPEC oil production rose 100,000 b/d to 57.7 million b/d in March, led by the US, with Russia also contributing.
Compared with last month's report, the forecast for North American production for this year's second half has been adjusted downward by 160,000 b/d on a slightly negative outlook for the US and Canada.
OECD industry stocks slipped 1.7 million bbl in February, despite a massive 36.4 million bbl build in crude oil stocks. Preliminary data show OECD inventories rising counter-seasonally in March, by 29.2 million bbl, as US crude holdings extended recent builds and refined products defied seasonal trends.
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AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.
REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.
IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.