2015: OIL DEMAND IS HIGHER
In its April Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of 2015 global oil demand by 90,000 b/d to 93.6 million b/d, a gain of 1.1 million b/d on the year and a notable acceleration of the 700,000-b/d growth in 2014, as the global economy slowly gains momentum. Colder-than-year-earlier temperatures in most Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development economies in this year's first quarter also accounted for part of the upward revision.
Since bottoming out at a 5-year low of 270,000 b/d year-on-year in second-quarter 2014, global growth has steadily strengthened, rising to a one-and-a-half-year peak of 1.3 million b/d year-on-year in this year's first quarter.
Global supply rose an estimated 1 million b/d month-on-month in March to 95.2 million b/d. Supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries surged to 31.02 million b/d in March, up 890,000 b/d on February, as top exporter Saudi Arabia ramped up output towards record rates while Iraq and Libya rebounded strongly.
Estimated non-OPEC oil production rose 100,000 b/d to 57.7 million b/d in March, led by the US, with Russia also contributing.
Compared with last month's report, the forecast for North American production for this year's second half has been adjusted downward by 160,000 b/d on a slightly negative outlook for the US and Canada.
OECD industry stocks slipped 1.7 million bbl in February, despite a massive 36.4 million bbl build in crude oil stocks. Preliminary data show OECD inventories rising counter-seasonally in March, by 29.2 million bbl, as US crude holdings extended recent builds and refined products defied seasonal trends.
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REUTERS - Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 72 cents at $61.49 per barrel at 1020 GMT, having fallen by 1.5 percent on Tuesday, its largest one-day drop in a month. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was at $55.12 per barrel, down 58 cents.
BLOOMBERG - Prices dropped during the session as the International Energy Agency said the recent recovery in oil prices, coupled with milder-than-normal winter weather, is slowing demand growth. The worsening outlook for consumption dampened some of the enthusiasm that OPEC and its allies will extend supply curbs.
Global energy needs rise more slowly than in the past but still expand by 30% between today and 2040. This is the equivalent of adding another China and India to today’s global demand.
Product exports have grown significantly over the past several years and are expected to continue to grow as Russian refineries add capacity to produce more high-quality products.