MAY OIL MARKET
Despite slowing US output of light tight oil, global oil supply growth remained at a steep 3.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in April.
At 95.7 mb/d, total oil supplies were flat from March as higher OPEC output offset a drop in non-OPEC production. Non-OPEC supply growth for 2015 is projected at 830 000 barrels per day (830 kb/d), up by 200 kb/d since the April OMR.
OPEC crude supply rose by 160 kb/d to 31.21 mb/d in April – the highest since September 2012, and nearly 1.4 mb/d above a year earlier – as Iraq and Iran boosted output and top exporter Saudi Arabia held flows above 10 mb/d. Upward revisions to non-OPEC supply lower "the call on OPEC" by 0.3 mb/d for the second half of 2015, to 30 mb/d.
The May OMR projects global oil demand growth at 1.1 mb/d for 2015, to 93.6 mb/d, up from 0.7 mb/d in 2014. The forecast is unchanged since last month as an improving economic outlook for Europe and a cold winter lift projections of OECD demand but only offset reduced expectations for the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Latin America.
Global refinery crude runs are expected to dip seasonally to 77.8 mb/d in the current quarter, from 78.2 mb/d in the first quarter of 2015. Estimates for both quarters have been lifted markedly since the April OMR on robust runs in Asia and Europe. Annual gains, of 1.4 mb/d for both the first and second quarters, largely shift to the non-OECD region in the current quarter.
OECD industry oil stocks rose counter-seasonally in March by 38.4 mb, led by US crude. Refined products meanwhile inched lower and by end-month covered 30.3 days of forward demand, level with a month earlier. Preliminary data indicate OECD stocks continued on an upward trend, building by 35.8 mb in April.
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WNA - Apart from adding capacity, utilisation of existing plants has improved markedly since 2000. In the 1990s capacity factors averaged around 60%, but they have steadily improved since and in 2010, 2011 and 2014 were above 81%. Balakovo was the best plant in 2011 with 92.5%, and again in 2014 with 85.1%.
WNA - India has a flourishing and largely indigenous nuclear power programme and expects to have 14.6 GWe nuclear capacity on line by 2024 and 63 GWe by 2032. It aims to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050.
WNA - Mainland China has 38 nuclear power reactors in operation, about 20 under construction, and more about to start construction. The reactors under construction include some of the world's most advanced, to give a 70% increase of nuclear capacity to 58 GWe by 2020-21. Plans are for up to 150 GWe by 2030, and much more by 2050.
PLATTS - "The domestic uranium mining industry needs US government assistance to survive the foreign onslaught -- particularly from Russia and Kazakhstan -- that has undermined the US uranium industry while new players -- particularly China -- will soon make the situation worse," Energy Fuels and Ur-Energy said in a petition they jointly filed with the department.