PRICES: THE FASTEST GROWTH
Global oil demand in 2015 is expected to grow by 1.6 mb/d, up 0.2 mb/d from our previous Report and the fastest pace in five years, as economic growth solidifies and consumers respond to lower oil prices. Persistent macro-economic strength supports above-trend growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2016.
World oil supply fell nearly 0.6 mb/d in July, mainly on lower non- OPEC output. OPEC crude production held steady near a three-year high. As lower prices and spending cuts take a toll, non-OPEC supply growth is expected to slow sharply from a 2014 record of 2.4 mb/d to 1.1 mb/d this year and then contract by 200 kb/d in 2016.
OPEC crude supply inched 15 kb/d lower in July to 31.79 mb/d as Saudi output eased and offset record high Iraqi production and increased Iranian flows. The 'call on OPEC crude and stock change' rises to 30.8 mb/d in 2016, up 1.4 mb/d on this year due to a stronger demand outlook and stalling non-OPEC supply growth.
OECD inventories rose counter-seasonally by 9.9 mb to hit another all-time high of 2 916 mb in June with their surplus to average levels widening to a record 210 mb. As the seasonal restocking of 'other products' continued apace, refined products by end-month covered 31.3 mb days of forward demand, 0.2 days above end-May.
Global refinery runs reached a record 80.6 mb/d in July, 3.2 mb/d up on a year earlier, but fissures are showing. High distillate stocks have pushed cracks in Singapore down to their lowest level since 2009 and prompted run cuts in Asia. Elsewhere, especially in the US, still-soaring gasoline cracks supported high margins and throughput.
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Instead, with the planned referendum just days away, Russian state oil giant Rosneft announced its latest investment last week, to help Iraqi Kurdistan develop its natural gas industry, for domestic supplies and eventual export.
Iran exported over 5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas during the first five months of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21-August 22), Dispatching director of National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) announced.
Gazprom Neft has shipped its second and largest cargo of Iraqi crude to the US since the Badra field, its flagship overseas oil project, came on stream in 2014, the Russian oil company said Tuesday.
Qatargas has agreed to sell 1.5 million tpy of LNG to Turkey’s BOTAŞ Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAŞ) over a period of three years