Здравствуйте. Вся информация этого сайта бесплатна. Вы можете сделать пожертвование и поддержать наше развитие. Спасибо.

Hello. All information of this site is free of charge. You can make a donation and support our development. Thank you.

2015-08-04 19:05:00

SANCTIONS FOR RUSSIA'S GDP

SANCTIONS FOR RUSSIA'S GDP

Sanctions linked to the Ukraine crisis could end up costing Russia 9 percent of its gross domestic product, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.

Russia's economy is showing signs of stabilisation after slumping under pressure from Western financial sanctions and Russian counter-measures. Low international prices for its oil exports have added to pressure on the rouble and government finances.

"The effects of sanctions in terms of external access to financial markets and new investment technology will linger," the Fund said, summing up the findings of a mission in May.

Last year Western countries imposed restrictions that limit international financing for major Russian banks and energy companies, and also high-tech exports to the energy sector. Russia retaliated by banning imports of most Western food products.

The Fund estimated the immediate effect of sanctions and counter-sanctions had been to wipe between 1 and 1.5 percent off GDP, rising to 9 percent over the next few years. These model-driven results were subject to significant uncertainty, it cautioned.

The IMF also forecast "weak" economic growth of around 1.5 percent annually in the medium term. Russia's economy was growing around 7 percent a year before the 2008 global financial crisis.

"Slow-moving structural reforms, sluggish investment and adverse population dynamics are all part of the picture," it said, reiterating its long-standing advice for Russia to reduce the role of the state in the economy, protect property rights and boost competition.

Russia would nevertheless return to economic growth next year as a weaker rouble boosted competitiveness, external demand increased and domestic financial conditions normalised, the IMF said.

It predicted 0.2 percent growth next year following a 3.4 percent contraction this year, in line with its previous forecasts.

Inflation was seen slowing to around 12 percent by the end of this year and 8 percent by the end of next year - more pessimistic than the central bank's forecast of 7 percent by mid-2016.

The IMF said the central bank's policy of gradually reducing its main interest rate in line with underlying inflation was appropriate, but the pace of reductions needed to be "prudent".

It supported limited fiscal stimulus this year, but added: "An ambitious and credible medium-term fiscal consolidation program is necessary to adjust to lower oil prices."

The IMF recommended revising Russia's fiscal rule, which links government spending to the historical oil price, so that the recent oil price fall could be more quickly reflected.

The Fund also said such fiscal adjustment would be hard to achieve if Russia indexes pensions next year at a cost of 1.1 percent of GDP. Russia typically indexes pensions but has yet to decide whether to do so next year.

"Detailed fiscal measures will also be critical for the credibility of the consolidation program," the IMF said.

reuters.com

More: 

ROSNEFT VS SANCTIONS 

ROSNEFT & STATOIL DRILLING 

RUSSIA: THE LARGEST 

ROSNEFT & STATOIL PARTNERSHIP 

RUSSIA NEEDS $70 

US VS RUSSIA: SANCTIONS 

EU VS RUSSIA: SANCTIONS

 

Tags: OIL, PRICES, RUSSIA, SANCTIONS,

Chronicle:

SANCTIONS FOR RUSSIA'S GDP
2017, December, 15, 12:50:00

LUKOIL'S PLAN: $50

LUKOIL - The plan is based on the conservative $50 per barrel oil price scenario. Sustainable hydrocarbon production growth is planned in the Upstream business segment along with the growth in the share of high-margin projects in the overall production. In the Downstream business segment, the focus is on the improvement of operating efficiency and selective investment projects targeted at the enhancement of product slate.

SANCTIONS FOR RUSSIA'S GDP
2017, December, 15, 12:45:00

BP INVESTS TO SOLAR

BP - BP will acquire on completion a 43% equity share in Lightsource for a total consideration of $200 million, paid over three years. The great majority of this investment will fund Lightsource’s worldwide growth pipeline. The company will be renamed Lightsource BP and BP will have two seats on the board of directors.

SANCTIONS FOR RUSSIA'S GDP
2017, December, 13, 12:40:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $64 YET

REUTERS - Brent crude was up 69 cents, or 1.1 percent, at $64.03 a barrel by 0743 GMT. It had settled down $1.35, or 2.1 percent, on Tuesday on a wave of profit-taking after news of a key North Sea pipeline shutdown helped send the global benchmark above $65 for the first time since mid-2015. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 45 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $57.59 a barrel.

SANCTIONS FOR RUSSIA'S GDP
2017, December, 13, 12:35:00

RUSSIAN-TURKISH NUCLEAR

ROSATOM - On December 10, 2017, the construction start ceremony took place at the Akkuyu NPP site under a limited construction licence issued by the Turkish Atomic Energy Agency (TAEK). Director General of the ROSATOM Alexey Likhachev, and First Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Turkish Republic, Fatih Donmez, took part in the ceremony.

All Publications »