Дорогие друзья! Больше трех лет я рассказываю вам об основных новостях, событиях, трендах на мировом рынке нефти и газа. Я делаю это бесплатно и без рекламы. Поэтому я прошу вас о помощи. Wognews нуждается в развитии. Вас больше 20 000 человек из более чем 80 стран мира. Если каждый пожертвует небольшую сумму денег, 500 или 1000 рублей, или больше, wognews станет лучше. Спасибо, Владимир Виноградов, основатель wognews.

Dear friends! For more than three years I've been telling you about the main news, events, trends in the world oil and gas market. I do it for free and without advertising. Therefore I ask you for help. Wognews needs development. You are more than 20 000 people from more than 80 countries. If each donate a small amount of money, $10, $20, $30 or more, wognews will become better. Thank you, Vladimir Vinogradov, the founder of wognews.
2016-10-14 18:55:00

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $43 - $51

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $43 - $51

WTI OIL PRICE 2015 - 2017

 

BRENT OIL PRICES NOV 2011 - OCT 2016

 

WTI OIL PRICES NOV 2011 - OCT 2016

 

According to EIA, Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $43/barrel (b) in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent in 2016 and in 2017. The current values of futures and options contracts suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook. NYMEX contract values for January 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending October 6 suggest a price range from $37/b to $68/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in January 2017.

Global oil inventory builds are forecast to average 0.7 million b/d in 2016 and 0.3 million b/d in 2017.

U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and 8.6 million b/d in 2017. 

After an unofficial meeting in Algeria on September 28, members of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced a framework agreement that could lead to a cap on OPEC crude oil production around 32.5 to 33.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017. Important details of the agreement, including target outputs for individual countries, still remain to be decided and agreed upon at a regular OPEC meeting in November. Even if such a decision/agreement is actually reached, the extent of compliance with whatever targets are stated remains an important question in light of past experience. Notwithstanding the recent framework agreement, the total OPEC production forecast for 2017 of 33.0 million b/d in the October STEO is almost unchanged from the September forecast.

Increased oil production from Libya and Russia, along with the potential for reduced disruptions to Nigeria's production, and a recovery in U.S. crude oil production beginning in mid-2017 are contributing to expections of looser 2017 balances in this STEO compared with last month. In Libya, crude oil production averaged 310,000 b/d in September. However, total crude oil output reached nearly 500,000 b/d at the end of the month, following the suspension of force majeures at a number of the ports that were previosly blocked by militants aligned with the Petroleum Facilities Guard.

In Russia, recent oil production has been higher than previously forecast, with production exceeding previous records in recent months. In addition, the start-up of new fields, including Lukoil's Pyakyakhinskoye field (early September), Filanovsky field (late September), the East Messoyakha (end September), and Rosneft's Suzun (October), has resulted in a higher-than-previously-expected outlook for Russian production. EIA now forecasts Russia's oil production to increase by 190,000 b/d in 2016 and by 20,000 b/d in 2017. Previously, EIA had forecast declining Russian production in 2017.

Disrupted volumes of Nigerian crude oil are set to partially return in October as the loading schedules for Qua Iboe and Forcados crude oil streams indicate about 500,000 b/d of extra supply could return to the market.

Natural gas marketed production fell from 79.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in September 2015 to 76.5 Bcf/d in July 2016. EIA expects marketed natural gas production to average 77.5 Bcf/d in 2016, a decrease of 1.6% from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual decline since 2005. Forecast production increases by 3.7 Bcf/d in 2017.

Henry Hub spot prices are forecast to average $3.04/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the fourth quarter of 2016 and $3.07/MMBtu in 2017. Natural gas futures contracts for January 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending October 6 averaged $3.34/MMBtu. NYMEX contract values for January 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending October 6 suggest a price range from $2.28/MMBtu to $4.88/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation of Henry Hub natural gas prices in January 2017.

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Earlier: 

OIL PRICES: ABOVE $51 

OIL PRICES: ABOVE $52 STILL

OIL PRICES: ABOVE $52 AGAIN

OIL PRICES: ABOVE $52

OIL PRICES: ABOVE $51

 

 

Tags: OIL, PRICES, BRENT, WTI,

Chronicle:

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $43 - $51
September, 22, 09:20:00

OIL PRICE: NOT ABOVE $57

International benchmark Brent crude futures were at $56.51 a barrel at 0644 GMT, up 8 cents, or 0.14 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 12 cents, or 0.24 percent, at $50.67 per barrel.

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $43 - $51
September, 22, 09:15:00

СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО АЛЖИРА И РОССИИ

Руководители энергетических ведомств России и Алжира обсудили состояние и перспективы двустороннего сотрудничества, а также совместную деятельность в многосторонних форматах, в том числе взаимодействие в рамках Форума стран-экспортеров газа. Также речь шла о взаимодействии в рамках соглашения ОПЕК+ по сокращению объемов добычи нефти. Стороны подтвердили приверженность исполнению взятых обязательств по достижению скорейшей ребалансировки нефтяного рынка.

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $43 - $51
September, 22, 09:10:00

ГАЗ РОССИИ ДЛЯ МАРОККО

Александр Новак отметил, что Россия занимает лидирующие позиции в мире в области топливно-энергетического комплекса, в частности, первое место по добыче нефти, второе место по добыче газа. «При этом Россия - номер один по экспорту газа. Мы добываем 670 млрд кубических метров газа, из них 220 млрд поставляем в другие страны различными способами – трубопроводным и сжиженным», - подчеркнул Министр.

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $43 - $51
September, 22, 09:05:00

НОВЫЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ РОССИИ

Кирилл Молодцов также сообщил о применении новых технологий в сфере нефтегазодобычи. «Из общего количества технологий, а их насчитывается примерно 600, более 300 производятся в России. Более двухсот имеют российские наработки и аналоги, то есть практически имеют стадию разработки проекта. Есть технологии, которые нас сильно волнуют, и мы будем развивать их дальше. Это абсолютно автономные системы добычи, окончание морских месторождений, забуривание, возможности создания и развития проектов в Арктике», - заключил Кирилл Молодцов.

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