RUSSIAN OIL&GAS INVESTMENT
EIA wrote, Russian federal revenue from oil and natural gas production has declined significantly in response to low oil prices. However, Russian oil and natural gas companies' capital investment programs have been less affected, if at all. Russia's two main hydrocarbon taxes are calculated by formulas that result in lower tax rates at lower crude oil prices. As oil prices fall, petroleum companies retain a larger share of revenue, but government revenues from oil and natural gas production fall even faster than prices.
In 2015, the Brent crude oil price, measured in U.S. dollars per barrel, declined by 47% versus 2014, and the price for the first half of 2016 is down an additional 31% versus the first half of 2015. Because of changes in the exchange rate, the decline in the Brent price as measured in Russian rubles is not as dramatic: a 16% decline from 2014 to 2015, and an additional 16% from the first half of 2015 to the first half of 2016. Over the same periods, Russian federal budget revenues from oil and natural gas fell by 21% and 29%, respectively. Many Russian petroleum companies have, in ruble terms, increased investment or seen only modest declines in investment over the same period.
State-owned Rosneft and independent Lukoil are Russia's two largest oil producers. Together, the two companies account for about half of Russia's roughly 11 million barrels per day oil production. While oil prices and government revenues declined in 2015, Rosneft increased its capital expenditure on exploration and production for projects in Russia by 30% compared with 2014. Rosneft's exploration and production capital expenditure in the first half of 2016 was 33% higher than in the first half of 2015. In comparison, Lukoil's spending on exploration and production for projects in Russia declined 11% in 2015 versus 2014, and expenditures in the first half of 2016 were 2% lower than in the first half of 2015.
The favorable tax structure and exchange rate for Russian oil companies, the subsequent continued high investment levels at Rosneft, Lukoil, and other Russian oil and natural gas companies, and slower production declines at old fields all have helped push production to record post-Soviet levels. Considerable investment has also been made in many new fields that have recently started up or are due to start in the near future.
In January 2015, the Russian government announced its intention to sell some of its shares in several Russian companies, including Bashneft and Rosneft. Bashneft was one of Russia's 10 largest oil producers. On October 12, 2016, the federal government sold its 50.08% controlling stake in Bashneft to Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, for $5.3 billion. The Russian government currently owns 69.5% of Rosneft. It also intends to sell up to 19.5% of Rosneft, retaining a controlling interest.
In addition to taxes, the Russian government also collects dividends from oil and gas companies in which the state is a shareholder. In April 2016, the Russian government directed state-controlled companies to pay 50% of 2015 net income out as dividends, nearly double the dividends companies would normally pay. Oil companies have objected to the tax and dividend increases, arguing they divert money from capital investment programs.
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REUTERS - Brent crude futures were at $68.78 at 0128 GMT, down 53 cents, or 0.8 percent, from their last close. On Monday, they hit their highest since December, 2014 at $70.37 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.36 a barrel, down 59 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their last settlement. WTI marked a December-2014 peak of $64.89 a barrel on Tuesday.
МИНФИН РОССИИ - Когда мы говорим, что при формировании бюджета закладываем цену на нефть 40 долларов за баррель, все дополнительные нефтегазовые доходы, которые получаем сверх этой цены (только от нефти и газа, конъюнктурные доходы), мы не тратим, а сберегаем. Не разгоняем тем самым расходные обязательства.
BLOOMBERG - Russia’s oil and gas index may gain another 20 to 30 percent this year as investors have yet to price in Brent at $70 per barrel, according to Sberbank CIB. "The sell side is assuming an average oil price of $55 per barrel for 2018,” the bank’s analysts said in a Jan. 15 note. "Should the oil price stay at the current level, we will see a wave of earnings upgrades.”
EIA - EIA forecasts that total fossil fuels production in the United States will average almost 73 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2018, the highest level of production on record. EIA expects total fossil fuel production to then set another record in 2019, with production forecast to rise to 75 quadrillion Btu.