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2016-11-30 18:50:00

IMF: EXTERNAL RISKS FOR RUSSIA

МВФ: ВНЕШНИЕ РИСКИ ДЛЯ РОССИИ

IMF wrote, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Ernesto Ramirez Rigo visited Moscow during November 14–18, 2016, to discuss the economic outlook and related policies. At the conclusion of the visit, Mr. Ramirez Rigo made the following statement:

"The economy has absorbed the dual shocks from oil and sanctions, and there are signs of a nascent turnaround, although economic activity will still contract by 0.6 percent this year. The recovery should be on a stronger footing in 2017, with the economy forecasted to expand by 1.1 percent due in part to higher oil prices. Inflation has continued to decelerate and is now projected to decline to 5.6 percent at end-2016, and to fall further towards the central bank's inflation target over the course of next year. The current account surplus is forecasted to narrow as the recovery of imports outpaces the increase in export receipts, in part because non-traditional exports have yet to benefit from the ruble depreciation.

"The authorities are embarking on a necessary and ambitious medium-term fiscal consolidation program to adjust to permanently lower oil prices. The reestablishment of the three-year fiscal framework is welcome and will help anchor expectations. However, to sustain the significant adjustment, fiscal consolidation should rely on better targeted and more permanent structural reforms to the pension system, tax exemptions, and subsidies, while protecting public and human capital investment. Finally, the enactment of a revised fiscal oil price rule would help reduce policy uncertainty and cement the fiscal adjustment.

"The expected fiscal consolidation and the subdued nature of the recovery are putting in place the conditions for the central bank to resume, in due course, monetary policy easing in a manner consistent with the 4 percent inflation target. However, the pace of easing should take into account the presence of external risks and the need to build credibility under the newly introduced inflation targeting regime.

"The authorities are preparing changes to the bank resolution framework, which include the creation of a bank resolution fund and introduction of statutory bail-in. Staff looks forward to analyzing the planned reforms and to further discussing these issues with the authorities, including during the annual Article IV mission expected to take place in May 2017."

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Earlier:

RUSSIA: 

RUSSIA CAN CUT 300 TBD 

RUSSIA IS READY 

RUSSIAN INVESTMENTS TO IRAN 

RUSSIAN DECISION: $6 BLN 

RUSSIA'S STABLE OUTLOOK

 

IMF: 

IMF WANTS PEMEX 

IMF: UKRAINIAN CORRUPTION 

IMF WANTS MORE EGYPT 

IMF SELLS TO IRAN 

IMF BOUGHT UKRAINE FOR U.S.

 

RUSSIA SANCTIONS: 

UNDERINVESTMENT OIL 

RUSSIA: THE LARGEST PRODUCER 

WESTERN SANCTIONS FOR GAZPROM 

NEGATIVE RUSSIAN OIL 

GAZPROM & SHELL SWAP

 

 

Tags: IMF, RUSSIA, МВФ, РОССИЯ

Chronicle:

МВФ: ВНЕШНИЕ РИСКИ ДЛЯ РОССИИ
2018, June, 22, 13:10:00

THE LARGEST VENEZUELA'S OIL

U.S. EIA - Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world, in large part because of the heavy oil reserves in the Orinoco Oil Basin. In addition to oil reserves, Venezuela has sizeable natural gas reserves, although the development of natural gas lags significantly behind that of oil. However, in the wake of political and economic instability in the country, crude oil production has dramatically decreased, reaching a multi-decades low in mid-2018.

МВФ: ВНЕШНИЕ РИСКИ ДЛЯ РОССИИ
2018, June, 22, 13:05:00

U.S. DEFICIT UP FROM $116.1 BLN TO $124.1 BLN

U.S. BEA - The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $124.1 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2018 from $116.1 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.5 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter, up from 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

МВФ: ВНЕШНИЕ РИСКИ ДЛЯ РОССИИ
2018, June, 22, 13:00:00

EUROPE'S NUCLEAR INVESTMENT : €50 BLN

WNN - There are 126 operational power reactors in 14 EU Member States, providing more than one-quarter of the bloc's total electricity production. In its Communication on the Nuclear Illustrative Program (PINC) published last year, the European Commission expects nuclear to maintain its significant role in Europe's energy mix up to 2050. This would require investment of some EUR40-50 billion (USD46-58 billion) in nuclear LTO by 2050.

МВФ: ВНЕШНИЕ РИСКИ ДЛЯ РОССИИ
2018, June, 20, 13:15:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $75

REUTERS - Benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 was up 50 cents at $75.58 a barrel by 0835 GMT. U.S. light crude CLc1 was 50 cents higher at $65.57.

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