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2016-11-23 18:30:00

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION

WSJ wrote, Iran and Iraq emerged as major stumbling blocks to an OPEC agreement on reducing crude-oil output, as cartel members gathered ahead of their official meeting to tackle the thorny puzzle of how to share the pain of reducing their production.

Officials of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries who met for midlevel talks aimed at nailing down terms ahead of a formal Nov. 30 meeting made progress by outlining cuts of as much as 4.5% for most countries, and by providing specific targets to each country, people familiar with the matter said.

Oil prices rallied early Tuesday on optimism based on reports about the talks' progress. The cut of 4.5% would reduce OPEC's output faster than the group envisioned in September when its members agreed in principle to production cuts.

But Iran and Iraq—the cartel's second- and third-largest producers—then told other members they were reluctant to go along with a cut of that size, according to people familiar with the matter.

News of the two countries' hesitance sent oil skittering down. In the late afternoon in London, Brent crude, the international benchmark, was down 0.82% at $48.50, after rallying to reach $50 a barrel earlier in the day.

"Everybody knows that the stakes are high," said Ibrahim Waya, a member of Nigeria's delegation to OPEC. He predicted that the cartel's members eventually "will be on board" with production cuts.

Iraqi and Iranian officials couldn't be reached for immediate comment, but Iraq's oil minister, Jabar al-Luaibi, said Sunday he would come up with proposals to resolve the differences. However, a Reuters report Tuesday quoted Iraq's foreign minister, Ibrahim al-Jaffari, as saying Baghdad still wanted to increase production.

For OPEC, the buildup to the Nov. 30 meeting has put a greater importance on reaching some kind of deal, a move that would reclaim the group's traditional role of managing oil supply to influence prices. Almost two years ago, the group made the historic decision—on Thanksgiving Day—to let prices fall amid a global supply glut without taking action; they have been pumping at record levels since.

"If they don't do a deal and depending on precisely why the deal failed, we expect prices to have another look at $40," said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered PLC.

Finding a formula for how production cuts would be apportioned among members has long been the biggest barrier to a deal.

That Iran is even being asked to cut appeared to be a departure from a September agreement in Algiers, where Saudi Arabia signaled its longtime rival would be exempted, effectively paving the way for the group to reach a rough consensus on cutting that it said it aimed to translate into actual cuts at its November meeting.

Iraq has said it needs oil revenue to prosecute a war against Islamic State, and Iran wants to regain the market share it lost during a period of international sanctions over its nuclear program.

Both countries say they don't want to use the production figures proposed by OPEC.

Despite the remaining challenging, discussion of the detailed proposals does mark progress, said Chris Kettenmann, chief energy strategist at U.S. broker Macro Risk Advisors. "It gives them a fulcrum to negotiate around," he said.

OPEC proposed 4.5% production for Iran would be based on its July 2005 output level of 3.97 million barrels a day, according to a person familiar with the matter. The mid-2005 level was Iran's highest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and represented its oil-industry's high-water mark before political isolation and sanctions ushered an era of decline.

OPEC officials said there was broad agreement for a six-month deal, not a year as previously discussed, officials said Tuesday. Mr. Waya said the six-month output curb being discussed would be monitored by a technical committee and would start on Jan. 1.

The deal would exempt two members—Nigeria and Libya—from the obligation to slash output. Both countries are looking to increase output after severe disruptions.

For Saudi Arabia, a 4.5% output cut would be as much as 476,000 barrels a day, based on its October production of 10.53 million barrels a day. That would still allow the kingdom to pump at historically high levels. Its average production in 2014, for instance, was 9.7 million barrels a day, according to OPEC.

OPEC members like Saudi Arabia and Iran have said they want prices to return to a range of $55 to $60 a barrel, far below 2014 levels of more than $100 a barrel, but enough to stop the bleeding in their petroleum-reliant national budgets.

The $55 to $60 price is seen as high enough to spur needed new investment in the U.S. and international oil industries, without sparking a flood of new output from American shale-oil producers. OPEC has struggled to regain its footing after American output surged in the past decade, thanks to hydraulic fracturing techniques.

Even if OPEC does find a way to cut, it may still find itself outmaneuvered by U.S. producers, who have been waiting to ramp up output again when prices rise. A significant boost in U.S. output could sink any price rally.

"I'm of the opinion that the cut is a big mistake," said Bjarne Schieldrop, the chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets.

-----

Earlier:

IRAN: 

ATTRACTIVE IRAN 

RUSSIAN INVESTMENTS TO IRAN 

IRAN - SAUDI COMPETITION 

IRAN - RUSSIA COOPERATION 

IRAN READY TO FREEZE

 

IRAQ: 

IRAQ'S THREE PROPOSALS 

IRAQ: OUT OF DEAL 

IRAQ WANTS 9 MBD 

IRAQ WANTS MORE 

IMF BOUGHT IRAQ

 

OPEC: 

OPEC'S CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM 

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION 33.64 MBD 

OPEC CAN'T CUT 

SOLIDARITY WITH OPEC 

OPEC - RUSSIA MEETING

 

 

Tags: IRAN, IRAQ, OPEC, OIL, PRODUCTION
IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION September, 20, 09:05:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $55 YET

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION September, 20, 09:00:00

GAS PRICES UP TO $3.146

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION September, 20, 08:55:00

ЦЕНА URALS: $51,81591

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION September, 20, 08:50:00

U.S. OIL + 79 TBD, GAS + 788 MCFD

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION September, 20, 08:45:00

RENEWABLE'S FUTURE

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION September, 20, 08:40:00

TOTAL BUYS RENEWABLE

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Chronicle:

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION
September, 20, 08:35:00

BP - AZERBAIJAN OIL DEAL

BP and its partners in Azerbaijan's giant ACG oil production complex agreed Thursday to extend the production sharing contract by 25 years to 2049 and to increase the stake of state-owned SOCAR, reducing the size of their own shares.

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION
September, 20, 08:30:00

U.S. DEFICIT UP TO $123.1 BLN

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $123.1 billion (preliminary) in the second quarter of 2017 from $113.5 billion (revised) in the first quarter of 2017, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit increased to 2.6 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.4 percent in the first quarter.

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION
September, 18, 12:35:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $55

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were trading up 41 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $50.30 by 0852 GMT, near the three-month high of $50.50 it reached last Thursday. Brent crude futures LCOc1, the benchmark for oil prices outside the United States, were at $55.91 a barrel, up 29 cents, and also not far from the near five-month high of $55.99 touched on Thursday.

IRANIAN - IRAQI REDUCTION
September, 18, 12:30:00

RUSSIA - CHINA - VENEZUELA OIL

“The principal risk regarding Russian and Chinese activities in Venezuela in the near term is that they will exploit the unfolding crisis, including the effect of US sanctions, to deepen their control over Venezuela’s resources, and their [financial] leverage over the country as an anti-US political and military partner,” observed R. Evan Ellis, a senior associate in the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Americas Program.

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