NIGERIA INTO RECESSION
PLATTS wrote, the Nigerian economy shrank further by 2.24% year-on-year in the third quarter on the back of a slump in oil production, the country's economic mainstay, according to government figures Monday.
Nigeria, which was Africa's largest oil producer until a few months ago, slipped into recession after its economy shrank by 2.06% in Q2, as the impact of militant attacks on oil facilities weighed on the country's economy.
Data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria's oil production averaged 1.63 million b/d in Q3, lower than the average 1.69 million b/d output in Q2, and 25% lower than the 2.17 million b/d production a year ago.
"As a result, real growth of the oil sector slowed by 22.01% (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2016. As a share of the economy, the oil sector contributed 8.19% of total real GDP, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2015 and the preceding quarter of 2016 recorded at 10.27% and 8.26% respectively," the government agency said.
Nigerian oil output has fallen sharply this year as renewed militancy in the oil-rich Niger Delta region resurfaced after some years of relative calm.
Production was slashed from 2.2 million b/d earlier in the year after militants continued to bomb facilities, and at one point this year left four Nigerian crude export grades -- Bonny Light, Brass River, Forcados and Qua Iboe -- under force majeure.
The attacks have continued even with the government trying to reach a peace deal with militants and activists in the Niger Delta following Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari meeting with leaders around three weeks ago.
Local media reported on Monday Buhari appealing to the militants to halt the attacks on oil facilities, and pledging his administration's commitment to improving the economic and social infrastructure in the region.
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IMF - Within the next few years, the U.S. economy is expected to enter its longest expansion in recorded history. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the approved increase in spending are providing a significant boost to the economy. We forecast growth of close to 3 percent this year but falling from that level over the medium-term. In my discussions with Secretary Mnuchin he was clear that he regards our medium-term outlook as too pessimistic. Frankly, I hope he is right. That would be good for both the U.S. and the world economy.
IMF - The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy is one of strong growth and job creation. Unemployment is already near levels not seen since the late 1960s and growth is set to accelerate, aided by a near-term fiscal stimulus, a welcome recovery of private investment, and supportive financial conditions. These positive outturns have supported, and been reinforced by, a favorable external environment with a broad-based pick up in global activity. Next year, the U.S. economy is expected to mark the longest expansion in its recorded history. The balance of evidence suggests that the U.S. economy is beyond full employment.
U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing production fell 0.7 percent in May, largely because truck assemblies were disrupted by a major fire at a parts supplier. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output moved down 0.2 percent. The index for mining rose 1.8 percent, its fourth consecutive month of growth; the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 107.3 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.5 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 77.9 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.
IMF - South Africa’s potential is significant, yet growth over the past five years has not benefitted from the global recovery. The economy is globally positioned, sophisticated, and diversified, and several sectors—agribusiness, mining, manufacturing, and services—have capacity for expansion. Combined with strong institutions and a young workforce, opportunities are vast. However, several constraints have held growth back. Policy uncertainty and a regulatory environment not conducive to private investment have resulted in GDP growth rates that have not kept up with those of population growth, reducing income per capita, and hurting disproportionately the poor.