OIL PRICES: $43 - $51
According to EIA, U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.8 million b/d in 2016 and 8.7 million b/d in 2017.
Brent crude oil prices will average close to $48/ barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017. Forecast Brent prices average $43/b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The values of futures and options contracts indicate significant uncertainty in the price outlook, with NYMEX contract values for February 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 3 suggesting that a range from $35/b to $66/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in February 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
Global oil inventory builds are forecast to average 0.8 million b/d in 2016 and 0.5 million b/d in 2017.
Natural gas marketed production is forecast to average 77.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2016, a 1.4 Bcf/d decline from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual decline since 2005. EIA expects production to start rising in November as a result of increases in drilling activity and infrastructure build-out that connects natural gas production to demand centers. In 2017, forecast natural gas production increases by an average of 2.9 Bcf/d from the 2016 level.
Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports, contribute to the Henry Hub natural gas spot price rising from an average of $2.50/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 to $3.12/MMBtu in 2017. NYMEX contract values for February 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 3 suggest that a price range from $2.01/MMBtu to $4.84/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation of Henry Hub natural gas prices in February 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
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Instead, with the planned referendum just days away, Russian state oil giant Rosneft announced its latest investment last week, to help Iraqi Kurdistan develop its natural gas industry, for domestic supplies and eventual export.
Iran exported over 5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas during the first five months of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21-August 22), Dispatching director of National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) announced.
Gazprom Neft has shipped its second and largest cargo of Iraqi crude to the US since the Badra field, its flagship overseas oil project, came on stream in 2014, the Russian oil company said Tuesday.
Qatargas has agreed to sell 1.5 million tpy of LNG to Turkey’s BOTAŞ Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAŞ) over a period of three years