OIL PRICES: ABOVE $44
According to REUTERS, oil held steady around three-month lows on Monday, as the prospect of another year of oversupply and weak prices overshadowed chances that OPEC will reach a deal to cut output.
Donald Trump's surprise victory in last week's U.S. presidential election has boosted stocks and the dollar, but undermined much of the commodities complex, including oil, which has sagged as expectations that the world's largest exporters will agree to reduce output this month have waned.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 2 cents on the day at $44.73 a barrel by 1005 GMT (5:05 a.m. ET), while NYMEX crude futures CLc1 were down 6 cents at $43.35 a barrel.
"In the same way that a strong OPEC agreement was needed to continue the rally above $55, a lack of agreement will be needed to break below $40 and right now, we're at $45," Petromatrix strategist Olivier Jakob said.
"So I think on a risk basis, we're starting to be a bit more concerned about the upside price risk, than about the downside."
OPEC plans to cut or freeze output, but analysts doubt the group's ability to reach an agreement at its meeting on Nov. 30.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Friday its output hit a record 33.64 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, and forecast an even larger global surplus in 2017 than the International Energy Agency on Thursday.
Yet, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih has said it was imperative for OPEC members to reach a consensus on activating a deal made in September in Algiers to cut production.
"OPEC know what needs to be done but too few members will agree to take the production pain for the price gain, knowing also that the price gain incentivizes non-OPEC to produce more, lengthening the rebalancing process," PVM Oil Associates analyst David Hufton said.
"OPEC are facing insurmountable problems to which the election of Donald Trump has added."
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AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.
REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.
IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.