U.S. OIL PRODUCTION DOWN
U.S. monthly crude oil production in December 2015 continued to decline, as oil production reached its lowest level since November 2014. Production also declined from year-ago levels for the first time in more than four years. This continued production decline is the result of lower crude prices, which have declined more than 70% since the summer of 2014.
Crude oil production in December 2015 averaged 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d), down 166,000 b/d from December 2014 and the first year-over-year decline in U.S. monthly oil output since September 2011.
Domestic oil production has generally declined month to month since reaching a 44-year peak of almost 9.7 million b/d in April 2015. Even as production declined, output was still above levels from the same month a year earlier until EIA published production for December 2015.
Most of the decline in oil production has occurred in states where a large portion of output comes from tight oil formations, including North Dakota, Texas, and New Mexico. Oil production from tight formations accounted for most of the increase in U.S. oil production during the past five years, and it is now making up most of the decline in output.
EIA forecasts U.S. oil production will continue to decline both on a month-to-month basis and from year-ago levels until the fourth quarter of 2017.
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IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.