AZERBAIJAN NEED $30 BLN
NGE published, Azerbaijan is hoping in the best case for profits in excess of $50bn from the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). State oil company Socar told that even the gloomiest outlook showed that Azerbaijan's share in the profit of SGC would be at least $30bn over the 25 years' duration of the sales and purchase agreements.
SGC is a project consisting of the development of Shah Deniz gas field stage 2 (SD2), including the South Caucasus Pipeline Expansion (SCPX), as well as the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (Tanap) and Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).
Azerbaijan has 16.7% share in Shah Deniz project, 58% in Tanap and 20% in TAP. The total costs of the implementation of SGC is expected to reach $39.1bn, of which about $9bn would be invested by Azerbaijan. "In return, the country is expected to earn $30bn-$50bn from SGC, depending on oil prices and additional incomes from transiting the other suppliers' gas through SGC," Socar said.
SD2 is projected to produce 16bn m3/yr of gas in 2018, of which 6bn m3/yr would reach Turkey in 2020 and the rest would flow into the EU by 2021. SD2 would also add 70,000 b/d to the gas condensate output of SD1, which stands at 50,000 b/d. SD1 produces about 10bn m3/yr of natural gas, of which 60% goes to Turkey.
Socar said that even with ignoring the gas export and transit revenues and taking the average oil price at $60/barrel in 2020-2030, the SGC shareholders would have $26bn revenues from only gas condensate export in ten years. At $80/barrel, the figure would stand at $35bn.
"The mentioned figures are for a 10-year period. In 25 years, with adding the gas revenues, transit incomes and taxes to this figure, the share of only Azerbaijan in SGC's profit would be around $30bn-$50," Socar said.
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