CANADA'S OIL WILL UP
According to REUTERS, Canada's oil sands production will grow by 42 percent to 3.4 million barrels per day by 2025, most of which will come from the expansion of existing facilities rather than new projects, analysts at IHS Energy said on Monday.
The million-barrel-per-day increase in output over the next nine years is less than what IHS would have estimated before the collapse in global oil prices, spokesman Jeff Marn said.
Low crude prices have forced producers such as Cenovus Energy and Royal Dutch Shell to slam the brakes on sanctioning new oil sands plants, while all projects currently under development will be completed by 2018, HIS said.
Future growth will have to come from so-called "brownfield" expansions where costs have come down as a result of lower construction activity, improved operating efficiencies and cheaper natural gas.
"We expect oil sands producers to focus future investments in the coming years onto their most economic projects - which we expect to be expansions of existing facilities," said Kevin Birn, director for IHS Energy.
"Expansions of existing facilities are better understood, quicker to first oil and lower cost to construct," he added.
HIS estimates that since 2014, the cost of building and operating a new oil sands plant has fallen by $10 a barrel, and the least expensive project - expanding an existing thermal oil sands operation - could break even at a U.S. crude price of around $50 a barrel.
U.S. crude was last trading at $46.09 a barrel, after topping $50 a barrel earlier this month for the first time in nearly a year.
|August, 17, 15:25:00|
|August, 17, 15:20:00|
|August, 17, 15:15:00|
|August, 17, 15:10:00|
|August, 17, 15:05:00|
|August, 17, 15:00:00|
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $51.02 per barrel at 0218 GMT, up 22 cents or 0.4 percent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $47.70 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.3 percent.
New data suggests that in 2Q17 global stocks fell by 0.5 mb/d and preliminary data for July, particularly in the United States where stocks fell by 790 kb/d, is supportive. Even so, we must not forget that they are falling from a very great height in volume terms. At the end of 2Q17, OECD commercial stocks, which are the component of the global total for which we have the most visibility, stood at 3 021 million barrels, still more than 219 mb above the five-year average although they have now fallen below 2016 levels. As an exercise, if OECD stocks fell by 0.5 mb/d until the end of 1Q18 when the current output agreements expire they would still be about 60 mb above the five-year average.
Средняя цена нефти марки Urals по итогам января - июля 2017 года составила $ 49,94 за баррель.
OPEC said world oil demand in 2018 will grow 1.28 million b/d from 2017 levels, meaning that total oil consumption is expected to hit a new record high of 97.8 million b/d in 2018.