OIL MARKET BALANCE 2017
Crude oil prices rallied to a 2016 high above $51/bbl in June, stoked by continuing outages in Nigeria and Canada as well as a steady decline in US oil production. May marked the third straight month of average price rises in Brent and WTI futures.
Outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries cut global oil supply by nearly 0.8 mb/d in May. At 95.4 mb/d, output stood 590 kb/d below a year earlier - the first significant drop since early 2013. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to return in 2017 at a modest 0.2 mb/d, after declining by 0.9 mb/d in 2016.
OPEC crude output fell by 110 kb/d in May to 32.61 mb/d as big losses in Nigeria due to oil sector sabotage more than offset higher Middle East output. Iran has clearly emerged as OPEC's fastest source of supply growth this year, with an anticipated gain of 700 kb/d.
Global oil demand in 1Q16 has been revised upwards to 1.6 mb/d and for 2016 growth will now be 1.3 mb/d. In 2017 we will see the same rate of growth and global demand will reach 97.4 mb/d. Non-OECD nations will provide most of the expected gains in both years. The growth rate is slightly above the previous trend, mostly due to relatively low crude oil prices.
Commercial inventories in the OECD increased from March levels by 14.4 mb to stand at 3 065 mb by end-April, an impressive 222 mb above one year earlier. As the US driving season kicks off, OECD gasoline stocks stand above average levels and last year in absolute and days of forward demand terms. There is a similar picture in China.
Refinery runs in 2Q16 are suffering from deepening outages. Throughput is nearly flat year-on-year, as refiners finally catch up with maintenance postponed from 2015. The seasonal ramp-up to 3Q16 is expected to be the largest on record, surging by about 2.3 mb/d quarter-on-quarter.
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BP - The Court Supervised Settlement Program (CSSP) established as part of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) class action settlement is winding down. BP now expects to take a post-tax non-operating charge of around $1.7 billion in its fourth quarter 2017 results for the remaining Business Economic Loss (BEL) and other claims associated with the CSSP. The cash impact is expected to be spread over a multi-year period.
REUTERS - Brent crude futures LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $70 per barrel at 0558 GMT, up 13 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $64.53 a barrel, up 23 cents.
WBG - The World Bank forecasts global economic growth to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018 after a much stronger-than-expected 2017, as the recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade continues, and as commodity-exporting developing economies benefit from firming commodity prices.
ROSATOM - Following 2017, a share of electricity production by Russian nuclear power plants has increased up to 18.9%.