U.S. THE STEEPEST CUTS
According to BOEREPORT, the oil and gas industry will cut $1 trillion from planned spending on exploration and development because of the slump in prices, leading to slower growth in production.
Worldwide investment in the development of oil and gas resources from 2015 to 2020 will be 22 percent, or $740 billion, lower than anticipated before prices plunged in 2014, with the deepest cuts in the U.S., Wood Mackenzie said in a report Wednesday. A further $300 billion will be eliminated from exploration spending. Global production this year will be 3 percent lower than previously forecast.
"The impact of falling oil prices on global upstream development spend has been enormous," Malcolm Dickson, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in the report. "Companies have responded to the fall by deferring or canceling projects" in virtually every oil-producing country, he said.
A global supply glut caused by the increase in shale oil production in the U.S., coupled with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to keep pumping to preserve market share, triggered a collapse in oil prices in 2014. While Brent crude, the international benchmark, has rebounded more than 75 percent from a 12-year low in January, the current price of about $49 a barrel is still less than half the level two years ago.
The U.S. has experienced the steepest cuts in spending. Forecast capital investment there is down by half for this year and next, a drop of around $125 billion, mainly due to a decline in drilling, Dickson said in the report.
The Middle East is the region least affected, with no drop in investment expected in Saudi Arabia — the world's largest crude exporter — for this year and next. That's because several countries in the region are spending to maintain their market share, the report said.
The investment cuts are taking a toll on production. Compared with expectations before the slide in oil prices, output this year will be 5 million barrels of oil equivalent a day lower, with the deficit widening to 6 million next year, Wood Mackenzie estimates.
Part of the reduction in spending stems from a drop in the cost of doing business. Costs in the U.S. unconventional oil and gas industry were a quarter lower on average compared with their peak in 2014, Wood Mackenzie said. In Russia, the 40 percent reduction in investment in dollar terms anticipated over the next two years is due in large part to the depreciation of the ruble, it said.
"For now, the select few projects that are progressed will do so because costs have been cut substantially," Dickson said. "Kick-starting the next investment cycle will require more cost deflation" and confidence in higher prices.
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IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.