OPEC REVENUE DOWN 46%
EIA wrote, Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned $404 billion in net oil export revenue in 2015, according to recently published U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates (Figure 1). This represents a 46% decline from the estimated $753 billion earned in 2014 and a 56% drop from the estimated $921 billion revenue received in 2012. While these net export earnings include Iran's revenues, they are not adjusted for possible price discounts that Iran may have offered its customers between late 2011 and January 2016, when nuclear-related sanctions targeting Iran's oil sales were in place.
EIA's estimated net oil export revenue is based on its oil production and consumption estimates, as well as its forecast for oil prices. EIA assumes that exports are sold at prevailing spot prices, and adjusts the benchmark crude oil prices that are forecasted (Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the average imported refiner crude oil acquisition cost) to incorporate historical price differentials between spot prices for the different OPEC crude oil types. For countries that export several different varieties of crude oil, EIA assumes that the proportion of total net oil exports represented by each variety is equal to the proportion of the total domestic production represented by that variety. For example, if Arab Medium represents 20% of total oil production in Saudi Arabia, the estimate assumes that Arab Medium also represents 20% of total net oil exports from Saudi Arabia.
OPEC revenue has fallen in step with the steep decline in crude oil prices. The monthly average Brent spot price dropped from $112 per barrel (b) in June 2014 to $38/b in December 2015. Based on price forecasts, OPEC revenue is expected to fall further in 2016 to $341 billion before rising to $427 billion in 2017.
OPEC members' 2015 net export revenue was the lowest since 2004, with significant implications for the fiscal condition of member countries that rely heavily on oil sales to fund social programs and import other goods and services. In inflation-adjusted terms, OPEC per capita net oil export revenue totaled $606 in 2015, down 83% from the 1980 level of $3,500 (Figure 2).
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