Дорогие друзья! Больше трех лет я рассказываю вам об основных новостях, событиях, трендах на мировом рынке нефти и газа. Я делаю это бесплатно и без рекламы. Поэтому я прошу вас о помощи. Wognews нуждается в развитии. Вас больше 20 000 человек из более чем 80 стран мира. Если каждый пожертвует небольшую сумму денег, 500 или 1000 рублей, или больше, wognews станет лучше. Спасибо, Владимир Виноградов, основатель wognews.

Dear friends! For more than three years I've been telling you about the main news, events, trends in the world oil and gas market. I do it for free and without advertising. Therefore I ask you for help. Wognews needs development. You are more than 20 000 people from more than 80 countries. If each donate a small amount of money, $10, $20, $30 or more, wognews will become better. Thank you, Vladimir Vinogradov, the founder of wognews.
2016-08-02 19:00:00

PRICES: PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW

PRICES: PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW

 

OIL PRICES JULY 2016

 

OIL PRICES SEP 2015 - AUG 2016

 

According to BLOOMBERG, oil closed in a bear market Monday, but don't abandon hope. Analysts are looking beyond the current slide to next year for a rebound.

Crude has plunged by more than a fifth in less than two months as refineries created a glut of gasoline while failing to eliminate excess supply of crude. That wrecked refining margins and hurt the earnings of Exxon Mobil Corp., BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc. Yet, global oil prices will average $57 a barrel in 2017, according to the median of at least 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Progress will be slow. The crude glut will take a long time to dissipate, meaning only gradual price gains, said Michael Hsueh, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, will average $49.50 in the fourth quarter before breaking decisively above $50 next year, the analysts say.

"We're looking at a market that's still in a very slow process of rebalancing and we don't think that you'll get a sustainable deficit until the second quarter of 2017," said Hsueh, who sees oil at $53 next year. "Those deficits are necessary to draw down global inventories, but that will still take until the end of 2018, it appears."

WTI has fallen 22 percent to $40.06 since early June, taking it past the 20 percent drop that characterizes a bear market. So ends a recovery that saw prices almost double from a 12-year low in February. Supply disruptions from Nigeria to Canada that cut into the global surplus have abated.

While U.S. stockpiles are down from an April peak, they remain far above anything the market has witnessed at this time of year for at least three decades. Worse, gasoline inventories are at unprecedented levels, too, crushing processing profits from a fuel that a few months ago was seen as an industry bright spot.

"The price move down does make sense, given that we still have a huge overhang of oil inventories," said Gareth Lewis Davies, an energy strategist at BNP Paribas. "There's a sense that looking at the balances going forward, supply and demand are in parity. That means we're still left with this overhang."

'Time Bomb'

Yet, with oil companies' capital expenditure reductions set to reach $1 trillion by 2020, Simon Flowers, the Edinburgh-based chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd., said there's a "ticking time bomb" that will eventually push prices higher. Such reductions may even push demand above supply as early as the end of this year, said Hans Van Cleef, an ABN Amro energy economist.

The lack of investment "will have a big impact on global supply," said Van Cleef, who forecast Brent will reach $70 next year. As soon as the market realizes there isn't an oversupply and that a shortage is imminent, "that should give a huge boost to oil prices," he said.

As prices begin to rise, the first producers to benefit will be U.S. shale drillers, Flowers said. He expects shale output to bottom early next year before returning to the record level set in 2015 of about 4.5 million barrels a day within two years. Shale production will nearly double to as much as 8.5 million by the middle of the next decade, spurred by cost savings of as much as 40 percent, according to Flowers.

Already, U.S. oil explorers have boosted the number of active rigs by 58 since the start of June to 374, with 3 added last week, Baker Hughes Inc. said July 29. American producers have expanded drilling in recent weeks after idling more than 1,000 oil rigs since the start of last year.

Globally the number of new oil rigs that hit their break even costs at $57 a barrel is "a much more patchy story," Flowers said, with regions such as West Africa lagging behind the U.S. in adapting to a lower price environment.

"The U.S. Energy Department is saying that this productivity gain is continuing," said Bjarne Schieldrop chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. Those gains could put the price of oil needed for U.S. shale production below $40 this time next year, he said.

-----

Earlier: 

URALS: $38.68 

WBG: OIL PRICES $53 - $60 

OIL PRICES DOWN TO $42.51 

GLOBAL PROFITS & CASH FLOW DOWN 

WBG: 2016: OIL PRICE $43

 

 

 

Tags: OIL, PRICES

Chronicle:

PRICES: PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
September, 22, 09:20:00

OIL PRICE: NOT ABOVE $57

International benchmark Brent crude futures were at $56.51 a barrel at 0644 GMT, up 8 cents, or 0.14 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 12 cents, or 0.24 percent, at $50.67 per barrel.

PRICES: PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
September, 22, 09:15:00

СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО АЛЖИРА И РОССИИ

Руководители энергетических ведомств России и Алжира обсудили состояние и перспективы двустороннего сотрудничества, а также совместную деятельность в многосторонних форматах, в том числе взаимодействие в рамках Форума стран-экспортеров газа. Также речь шла о взаимодействии в рамках соглашения ОПЕК+ по сокращению объемов добычи нефти. Стороны подтвердили приверженность исполнению взятых обязательств по достижению скорейшей ребалансировки нефтяного рынка.

PRICES: PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
September, 22, 09:10:00

ГАЗ РОССИИ ДЛЯ МАРОККО

Александр Новак отметил, что Россия занимает лидирующие позиции в мире в области топливно-энергетического комплекса, в частности, первое место по добыче нефти, второе место по добыче газа. «При этом Россия - номер один по экспорту газа. Мы добываем 670 млрд кубических метров газа, из них 220 млрд поставляем в другие страны различными способами – трубопроводным и сжиженным», - подчеркнул Министр.

PRICES: PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
September, 22, 09:05:00

НОВЫЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ РОССИИ

Кирилл Молодцов также сообщил о применении новых технологий в сфере нефтегазодобычи. «Из общего количества технологий, а их насчитывается примерно 600, более 300 производятся в России. Более двухсот имеют российские наработки и аналоги, то есть практически имеют стадию разработки проекта. Есть технологии, которые нас сильно волнуют, и мы будем развивать их дальше. Это абсолютно автономные системы добычи, окончание морских месторождений, забуривание, возможности создания и развития проектов в Арктике», - заключил Кирилл Молодцов.

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