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2016-09-07 18:35:00

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE

PLATTS wrote, oil supply and demand are rebalancing and the market may even have started drawing on the large overhang of crude and product stocks, top industry executives said during opening addresses at S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference 2016 in Singapore Tuesday.

US shale oil production remained the biggest wild card, they also said.

"Supply and demand are near balance, but the balance is precarious," Andy Milnes, CEO, Integrated Supply & Trading (Eastern Hemisphere), BP, told delegates.

The market has been carrying an enormous inventory overhang, but BP believes that starting June/July "we might have started to draw [on stocks]," he said, adding that meant consumption was above supply and has to stay above for a long time for the market to start seeing the affect.

"There is a light at the end of the tunnel. The world is demanding more hydrocarbons than it is producing," Milnes said.

Statoil echoed a similar sentiment.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the event, Statoil senior vice president and chief economist Eirik Waerness said rebalancing was already taking place but it was impossible to predict how that will affect prices because of the oil in storage.

"Fundamentals indicate that prices should gradually come up now," Waerness said, adding there were a lot of drivers that support higher prices but the inventory overhang was keeping prices capped.

"We have probably the lowest spare production capacity in OPEC," he said, adding there were also supply disruptions and these are factors that would normally cause prices to go up.

"On the other hand, we have maybe 500 million extra barrels of oil in storage compared to what we have had on average in the past," Waerness said.

US SHALE OIL

According to Milnes, the fact the supply shock occurred in the US -- a disaggregated market with lots of small producers that have a small cost base and tremendous ability to innovate quickly -- has had a dramatic impact on the way things have shaped up.

According to data from the International Energy Agency and independent consultancy Rystad, at $60/b, US shale production will stay stable.

But a price above that will lead to a rise in US production and a price below it will result in a drop, Milnes said.

"Any price recovery will be banded by the ability of [US] shale producers to bounce back," he said.

Milnes said companies like BP and other big explorers have stopped exploring in many areas and, while this was not affecting the supply situation today, it could in future.

"In 5-15 years, if the demand carries on rising, and the energy sector is not continuing to invest through the cycle, then OPEC will become more important again," Milnes said.

According to projections by Waerness, oil demand could grow up to 14.9 million b/d and gas demand by up to 625 billion cu m by 2040 from 2013 levels. "There is a real risk that if the current sentiment [of under-investment] prevails we could have a spike in prices because there could be a shortage in oil and gas supply," he said.

-----

Earlier: 

БЫСТРЕЕ СБАЛАНСИРОВАТЬ РЫНКИ 

SAUDI & RUSSIA COOPERATION 

OIL PRICES: ABOUT $48 

URALS: $39,36 

РОССИЯ И САУДОВСКАЯ АРАВИЯ ДОГОВОРИЛИСЬ

 

 

 

Tags: OIL, PRICES, BRENT, WTI, MARKET
BALANCE IS UNSTABLE September, 20, 09:05:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $55 YET

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE September, 20, 09:00:00

GAS PRICES UP TO $3.146

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE September, 20, 08:55:00

ЦЕНА URALS: $51,81591

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE September, 20, 08:50:00

U.S. OIL + 79 TBD, GAS + 788 MCFD

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE September, 20, 08:45:00

RENEWABLE'S FUTURE

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE September, 20, 08:40:00

TOTAL BUYS RENEWABLE

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Chronicle:

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE
September, 20, 08:35:00

BP - AZERBAIJAN OIL DEAL

BP and its partners in Azerbaijan's giant ACG oil production complex agreed Thursday to extend the production sharing contract by 25 years to 2049 and to increase the stake of state-owned SOCAR, reducing the size of their own shares.

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE
September, 20, 08:30:00

U.S. DEFICIT UP TO $123.1 BLN

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $123.1 billion (preliminary) in the second quarter of 2017 from $113.5 billion (revised) in the first quarter of 2017, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit increased to 2.6 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.4 percent in the first quarter.

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE
September, 18, 12:35:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $55

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were trading up 41 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $50.30 by 0852 GMT, near the three-month high of $50.50 it reached last Thursday. Brent crude futures LCOc1, the benchmark for oil prices outside the United States, were at $55.91 a barrel, up 29 cents, and also not far from the near five-month high of $55.99 touched on Thursday.

BALANCE IS UNSTABLE
September, 18, 12:30:00

RUSSIA - CHINA - VENEZUELA OIL

“The principal risk regarding Russian and Chinese activities in Venezuela in the near term is that they will exploit the unfolding crisis, including the effect of US sanctions, to deepen their control over Venezuela’s resources, and their [financial] leverage over the country as an anti-US political and military partner,” observed R. Evan Ellis, a senior associate in the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Americas Program.

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