HIGH RISK FOREVER
BOE wrote, oil demand should start accelerating by year's end, and outside of Saudi Arabia the prospect for production growth among OPEC members looks bleak.
Oil prices have swung up and down this month following an August rally spurred by speculation that Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would move to stabilize the market. The countries have fueled the volatility in recent weeks, as they talked of freezing output even while boosting production to new highs.
It predicted a large output contraction down the road with decline rates accelerating at these low prices. While assuming healthy OPEC growth going forward, conservative supply and demand balance continues to point towards hefty stock draws during the second half of the year.
The market remains bullish, onshore visible inventories will draw and oil prices will move higher.
The Commodities Master Fund gained 38 percent in 2014, when oil prices began a two-year slide. In August, the fund gained 4.2 percent, bringing annual returns to 8.3 percent, according to the letter. The hedge fund industry as a whole gained 1 percent in August and is up 2.2 percent this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Investment in new oil supplies is drying up, thanks to low prices and climate-change worries that are fueling a push toward renewable energy.
It seen 2017-2020 as still having the potential for much higher prices. After 2020, there is a high risk that electric vehicle penetration will change the oil market forever.
|July, 16, 11:05:00|
|July, 16, 11:00:00|
|July, 16, 10:55:00|
|July, 16, 10:50:00|
|July, 16, 10:45:00|
|July, 16, 10:40:00|
AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.
REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.
IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.