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2017-01-16 18:35:00

2017: VOLATILITY OIL PRICES

2017: VOLATILITY OIL PRICES

REUTERS - Global oil prices will witness "much more volatility" in 2017 even though markets may rebalance in the first half of the year if output cuts pledged by producers are implemented, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Sunday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed on Nov. 30 to cut output by 1.2 million bpd to 32.5 million bpd for the first six months of 2017, in addition to 558,000 bpd of cuts agreed by independent producers such as Russia, Oman and Mexico.

"I would expect that we will see a rebalancing of the markets within the first half of this year," said Fatih Birol, executive director of IEA, the Paris-based global energy watchdog.

"But what I want to say (is) that we are entering a period of much more volatility in the market ... the name of the game is volatility," he told Reuters Television in Abu Dhabi.

Prices fell on Friday and ended the week 3 percent lower on lingering doubts over the extent of OPEC cuts, with sentiment worsened by concerns over the economic health of the world's second-largest oil consumer, China, after it reported the steepest falls in overall exports since 2009. 

Birol said although the OPEC agreement could signal higher oil prices, it would also encourage more production from the United States and elsewhere. Higher prices could also weaken global demand for oil, he added.

"I expect the U.S. shale oil will go back to increasing production this year," Birol said.

He added that a recent trend of declining Chinese oil production due to low prices could be reversed if the market strengthened.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed crude production rose notably last week, particularly in 48 southern states. Overall production was 8.95 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, the most since April of last year.

OPEC and the independent producers are cutting supplies to remove a global glut and prop up prices, which at around $56 a barrel are half their level of mid-2014, hurting the revenue of exporting nations.

Birol said his main concern now was lack of investment in new oil supplies after low prices over the past two years forced the shutdown of many projects across the world.

"This year, if there are no major investments coming we may well see in a few years from now significant supply-demand gap with serious implications on the market."

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Earlier: 

OIL MARKET DEFICIT  

EMIRATES URGE TO CUT  

RUSSIA'S OIL SUCCESS  

OIL PRICES: ABOVE $55 ANEW  

WBG: 2017 - UNCERTAIN TIMES

 

 

 

Tags: OIL, PRICES, OPEC, IEA

Chronicle:

2017: VOLATILITY OIL PRICES
2018, June, 18, 14:00:00

U.S. IS BETTER

IMF - Within the next few years, the U.S. economy is expected to enter its longest expansion in recorded history. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the approved increase in spending are providing a significant boost to the economy. We forecast growth of close to 3 percent this year but falling from that level over the medium-term. In my discussions with Secretary Mnuchin he was clear that he regards our medium-term outlook as too pessimistic. Frankly, I hope he is right. That would be good for both the U.S. and the world economy.

2017: VOLATILITY OIL PRICES
2018, June, 18, 13:55:00

U.S. ECONOMY UP

IMF - The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy is one of strong growth and job creation. Unemployment is already near levels not seen since the late 1960s and growth is set to accelerate, aided by a near-term fiscal stimulus, a welcome recovery of private investment, and supportive financial conditions. These positive outturns have supported, and been reinforced by, a favorable external environment with a broad-based pick up in global activity. Next year, the U.S. economy is expected to mark the longest expansion in its recorded history. The balance of evidence suggests that the U.S. economy is beyond full employment.

2017: VOLATILITY OIL PRICES
2018, June, 18, 13:50:00

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN 0.1%

U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing production fell 0.7 percent in May, largely because truck assemblies were disrupted by a major fire at a parts supplier. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output moved down 0.2 percent. The index for mining rose 1.8 percent, its fourth consecutive month of growth; the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 107.3 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.5 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 77.9 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

2017: VOLATILITY OIL PRICES
2018, June, 18, 13:45:00

SOUTH AFRICA: NO BENEFITS

IMF - South Africa’s potential is significant, yet growth over the past five years has not benefitted from the global recovery. The economy is globally positioned, sophisticated, and diversified, and several sectors—agribusiness, mining, manufacturing, and services—have capacity for expansion. Combined with strong institutions and a young workforce, opportunities are vast. However, several constraints have held growth back. Policy uncertainty and a regulatory environment not conducive to private investment have resulted in GDP growth rates that have not kept up with those of population growth, reducing income per capita, and hurting disproportionately the poor.

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