OIL PRICES: ABOVE $55 AFRESH
REUTERS - Oil prices slipped on Monday, pressured by doubts that large oil producers will reduce production as promised and on expectations that U.S. production would increase again this year.
Benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 was down 10 cents a barrel at $55.35 by 0915 GMT (04:15 a.m. ET) and U.S. light crude CLc1 fell 10 cents to $52.27.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 32.5 million bpd from Jan. 1 in an attempt to clear global oversupply that has depressed prices for more than two years.
Russia and other key exporters outside OPEC have said they will also cut output.
But global oil production remains high and, with inventories near record levels in many areas, investors doubt that OPEC and its allies can trim output enough to push up prices.
"Cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries have just started and it will take some time for them to filter through," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets in Oslo.
"We do not really expect the oil price to strengthen much more in the first quarter of 2017."
Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that OPEC and non-OPEC producers are unlikely to extend their agreement to cut oil output beyond six months.
"We don't think it's necessary given the level of compliance," Falih said. "My expectations (are) ... that the rebalancing that started slowly in 2016 will have its full impact by the first half."
Russian oil and gas condensate production averaged 11.1 million bpd for Jan. 1-15, two energy industry sources said on Monday, down only 100,000 bpd from December. Russia has committed to a 300,000 bpd cut during the first half of 2017 as a part of the global deal with OPEC.
Rising U.S. oil output is also preventing crude from climbing further.
Goldman Sachs said it expects year-on-year U.S. oil production to rise by 235,000 bpd in 2017, taking into account wells that have been drilled and are likely to start producing in the first half of the year.
U.S. oil output is now at 8.95 million bpd, up from less than 8.5 million bpd in June last year and at similar levels to 2014, when overproduction send the market into a tailspin.
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REUTERS - State oil company Saudi Aramco last week raised prices for all crude oil grades to Asia in January.
U.S. BLS - Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 228,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care.
Отклонение нефтегазовых доходов федерального бюджета от месячной оценки, соответствующей Федеральному закону о федеральном бюджете на 2017-2019 годы, в декабре 2017 года прогнозируется в размере +204,8 млрд руб.
“Tight oil supplies are the wild card. They have reshaped the global outlook in recent years,” observed Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, who directs the research division at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. “US tight oil supplies will be the most important contributor but are expected to reach their peak around 2025.”