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2017-10-18 18:35:00

CANADA'S OIL PRICE: $50 - $53

CANADA'S OIL PRICE: $50 - $53

ENERGYNOW A shift in global oil markets sentiment is under way, replacing decades of scarcity fears with confidence in surpluses, capping oil prices and forcing changes in the way the industry works, observers say.

"We're moving from a mindset where oil was considered a scarce resource to one now where it's more of a plentiful resource," said Steve Reynish, executive vice-president of strategy and corporate development at Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX:SU), speaking at a conference in Calgary last week.

"What we're seeing is a huge reorganization worldwide and it's all about how can we compete in a more plentiful world and that really takes us to competitiveness, cost-cutting, capital discipline."

Reynish said Canada has fallen behind the U.S. in pipeline and major resource project construction and needs to rework regulatory, political and environmental priorities. As an example, he reiterated a call by Suncor CEO Steve Williams last year to update Alberta conservation rules to allow oilsands producers to leave the most costly and carbon-intensive portions of a resource untapped.

The world's current oil oversupply has been largely driven by U.S. shale oil and gas plays, Reynish said. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Canada's largest energy customer has boosted domestic oil production from less than four million barrels per day in 2008 to 9.2 million bpd now, while gas output has risen from 67 million cubic feet per day to 89 million cf/d.

The production surplus that put oil prices in a funk starting in mid-2014 has pushed potential investors to the sidelines, experts say.

Energy analyst Nick Lupick of AltaCorp Capital said the recent stability in benchmark U.S. West Texas Intermediate prices has encouraged some investors to put oil and gas stocks back in their portfolios again but the market is "skittish" and could easily be derailed by volatility in oil prices. Most funds remain below market weighting in oil and gas securities, he said.

"Between US$50 and $53 WTI (per barrel) is perfect," he said in an interview.

"If we can sit there for the rest of the year, fundamentals are showing better, buying will likely continue, and the weightings will come up. What we don't want to see is volatility."

WTI was trading at above US $51 on Friday.

Oilsands production is expected to rise early next year as Suncor's Fort Hills mine adds 194,000 bpd and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (TSX:CNQ) brings on its 80,000-bpd Horizon mine expansion.

Lupick said there's plenty of demand in the world for that heavy oil but a lack of pipeline space means higher-priced railway cars will have to be employed to bring new barrels to market in the short term.

Adam Waterous, who left Scotiabank to start investment firm Waterous Energy Fund early this year, said he remains convinced that this is the perfect time to invest in oil and gas after four decades of "lousy" six to eight per cent returns from the sector.

He said the "age of scarcity" began with the Arab oil embargo on the U.S. in 1973 and has ever since prompted poorly-considered energy projects in Canada based on overly optimistic commodity price forecasts.

"Optimism is the enemy of the investor," he said. "I'm a buyer right now. I love negative headlines."

The Waterous fund was created with the goal to invest $200 million- to $400-million in oil and gas companies — it bought two-thirds of the shares in Northern Blizzard Resources (since renamed Cona Resources Ltd.) earlier this year for about $244 million.

Suncor will be one of the first major Canadian oil and gas companies to report its third-quarter financial results on Oct. 25.

Analysts say few surprises are expected as companies continue to sacrifice growth in favour of conservative budgets that keep spending to less than cash flow (the difference between revenue and expenses).

Companies with refinery assets such as Suncor, Imperial Oil Ltd. (TSX:IMO), Husky Energy Inc. (TSX:HSE) and Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX:CVE) are expected to do well as refinery profit margins rose when competing Gulf Coast refineries were closed due to flooding caused by hurricane Harvey.

However, a US six-cent gain in the average value of the Canadian dollar in the third quarter compared with the second is expected to hurt producers' realized oil and gas prices, dampening third-quarter profits.

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Earlier:

U.S. RIGS DOWN 8 TO 928
2017, October, 16, 11:30:00

U.S. RIGS DOWN 8 TO 928

U.S. Rig Count is up 389 rigs from last year's count of 539, with oil rigs up 311, gas rigs up 80, and miscellaneous rigs down 2 to 2. Canada Rig Count is up 47 rigs from last year's count of 165, with oil rigs up 22 and gas rigs up 25.

 
 TRANSCANADA'S CAPITAL PROGRAM: $24 BLN
2017, October, 6, 12:30:00

TRANSCANADA'S CAPITAL PROGRAM: $24 BLN

We will continue to focus on our $24 billion near-term capital program which is expected to generate growth in earnings and cash flow to support an expected annual dividend growth rate at the upper end of an eight to 10 per cent range through 2020.

 

 CANADA NEED $60
2017, September, 29, 12:10:00

CANADA NEED $60

“Fifty-dollar WTI is not high enough to support a material uptick in oilsands investments,” said Randy Ollenberger, managing director of oil and gas equity research for BMO Capital Markets. “Sustained US$60-plus oil prices are required to support most projects.”

 

 CANADIAN DRILLING UP
2017, August, 3, 12:10:00

CANADIAN DRILLING UP

The Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC) has updated its 2017 Canadian Drilling Activity Forecast to reflect an increase in its projected total number of wells to be drilled during the year to 7,200 from 6,680.

 

 CANADA'S ECONOMY UP 4%
2017, July, 19, 14:40:00

CANADA'S ECONOMY UP 4%

IMF: Canada’s economy expanded at an annual pace of nearly 4 percent in the first quarter of 2017—the fastest growth rate among the Group of 7 countries. With the economy’s adjustment to lower oil prices almost complete, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.5 percent this year, up from 1.5 percent in 2016.

 

 CANADIAN WELLS UP TO 6,680
2017, May, 1, 12:05:00

CANADIAN WELLS UP TO 6,680

The Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC), in its second update to the 2017 Canadian Drilling Activity Forecast, announced its revision of the forecasted number of wells drilled (rig released) across Canada for 2017 to 6,680 wells. This represents an increase of 2,505 wells and a 60 per cent increase from PSAC’s original 2017 Drilling Activity Forecast released in early November 2016 of 4,175 wells rig released. PSAC based its updated 2017 forecast on average natural gas prices of $3.00 CDN/mcf (AECO), crude oil prices of US$52.50/barrel (WTI) and the Canada-US exchange rate averaging $0.74.

 

 CANADA'S OIL WILL UP
2016, June, 28, 18:05:00

CANADA'S OIL WILL UP

Canada's oil sands production will grow by 42 percent to 3.4 million barrels per day by 2025, most of which will come from the expansion of existing facilities rather than new projects

 

 

 

Tags: CANADA, OIL, PRICE

Chronicle:

CANADA'S OIL PRICE: $50 - $53
November, 15, 15:25:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $61 AGAIN

REUTERS - Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 72 cents at $61.49 per barrel at 1020 GMT, having fallen by 1.5 percent on Tuesday, its largest one-day drop in a month. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was at $55.12 per barrel, down 58 cents.

CANADA'S OIL PRICE: $50 - $53
November, 15, 15:20:00

IEA COOLS THE MARKET

BLOOMBERG - Prices dropped during the session as the International Energy Agency said the recent recovery in oil prices, coupled with milder-than-normal winter weather, is slowing demand growth. The worsening outlook for consumption dampened some of the enthusiasm that OPEC and its allies will extend supply curbs.

CANADA'S OIL PRICE: $50 - $53
November, 15, 15:15:00

IEA: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND UP BY 30%

Global energy needs rise more slowly than in the past but still expand by 30% between today and 2040. This is the equivalent of adding another China and India to today’s global demand.

CANADA'S OIL PRICE: $50 - $53
November, 15, 15:10:00

RUSSIA'S OIL EXPORTS UP

Product exports have grown significantly over the past several years and are expected to continue to grow as Russian refineries add capacity to produce more high-quality products.

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