LIBYAN OIL PRODUCTION 1 MBD
OGJ - Wood Mackenzie Ltd. analysts believe Libya's oil production might have reached near-term limits with only gradual future growth. The possibility of longer-term political normalization and a reduction in the nation's political conflicts depends on Libya maintaining oil production.
Libya's oil production increased steeply to the current level of 850,000 b/d from a low point in August 2016 of below 300,000 b/d. Production surpassed 1 million b/d in July.
WoodMac said export capacity remains constrained by damage to the key ports of As Sidrah and Ras Lanuf, limiting production to a maximum of 1.25 million b/d, which Libya's National Oil Corp. has announced as its yearend target.
"Reaching this would be quite an achievement, given ongoing challenges, including international oil companies' reluctance to recommit capital and expertise, a national oil company starved of funding—and, not least, the propensity for violence to flare up and armed groups to hinder oil output," WoodMac said in an Oct. 20 note.
American and Canadian oil companies continue to view Libya with trepidation, and some may seek to mitigate exposure there, analysts said. But many European companies consider the risks manageable and envision a gradual reentry into projects.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries exempted Libya from production-cut targets, which WoodMac calls "a tacit acknowledgement of the upside limitations to the country's production recovery. We expect that it will be well into next decade before production is restored to prewar levels."
WoodMac believes Libya would be successful if it maintains stable production of 1 million b/d, adding that incremental interim gains might help avert a deepening of the country's conflicts.
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AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.
REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.
IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.