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2017-11-20 09:15:00

IMF: RUSSIA'S RECOVERY

IMF: RUSSIA'S RECOVERY

IMF - An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, visited Moscow during November 13–17, 2017, to discuss the economic outlook and related policies. At the conclusion of the visit, Mr. Ramirez Rigo made the following statement:

"A cyclical recovery in Russia is gaining pace after a two-year recession, with growth expected to reach around 2 percent this year, supported by higher oil prices and easier domestic financial conditions. Nevertheless, growth is likely to remain low in the medium-term, due to demographics, unaddressed structural bottlenecks as well as enduring sanctions.

Inflation is likely to be just under 3 percent at end-2017, but it is expected to return to around the 4 percent target soon thereafter. The current account surplus is forecasted to improve due to higher oil prices and stronger global demand.

"The deficit reduction planned in the 2018-20 federal budget, underpinned by the new fiscal rule, is welcome. The adjustment is warranted due to permanently lower oil prices and the need to increase savings in the oil fund in the face of potentially volatile oil prices. Measures to improve tax collection and the return on state assets – including dividend payout – could boost non-oil revenues. The adjustment on the expenditure side should rely on more permanent and better targeted measures, such as parametric reform to the pension system, shifts to means-testing of social assistance programs and reductions in subsidies and tax expenditures. Detailed spending reviews could also create fiscal space for infrastructure and human capital investment.

"The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has met its inflation target earlier than expected with the commendable steadfast implementation of their inflation targeting regime. Conditions are in place for further easing of monetary policy as inflation and inflation expectations have continued to decline since the last Article IV (see Press Release No. 17/270). Further cuts in the policy interest rate should continue as the monetary stance remains tight but with due care to the potential reversal of temporary factors – low food prices and the strong exchange rate – which are partly responsible for the current low inflation. The CBR's enhanced monetary framework beyond end-2017 is welcome.

"The banking system appears stable, notwithstanding the recent rescue of two prominent banks and endemic weaknesses in many small banks. Lending activity continues to increase, supporting a recovery in bank profitability, while NPLs appear to have stabilized. However, asset quality remains a key weakness and there are risks that provisioning may be low in some banks. Thus, the priority is to strengthen the ongoing asset quality review to ensure banks' capital basis and support market confidence. A key focus should be on ensuring credibility within the financial system, which requires the adoption and communication of a strategy to address any weaknesses identified by the review and transparency around the cost to taxpayers. The new bank resolution framework should shorten the process of open bank resolution and reduce balance sheet encumbrance, but areas of improvement remain. The CBR's funding could be replaced with federal government funds, provide for statutory bail-in consistent with international standards and remove the impediments to purchase and assumptions of problem banks by healthy banks."

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Earlier:

 RUSSIA:

 

 

 

 

 IMF:

 НЕФТЯНАЯ ПАУЗА РОССИИ
2017, November, 17, 19:50:00

RUSSIA'S OIL PAUSE

FT - The original deal with Opec’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia, brokered by Mr Novak and Russian president Vladimir Putin, reduced oil production from participating countries by 1.8m barrels a day and helped push the price of benchmark Brent Crude above $60 a barrel this week for the first time in more than two years.

         IMF: SOUTHEAST ASIA'S TRANSFORMATION
2017, September, 13, 15:10:00

IMF: SOUTHEAST ASIA'S TRANSFORMATION

IMF - When we think about Asia’s economic future, we know that this future is being built on strong foundations—on the richness and diversity of its cultures, on the incredible energy and ingenuity of the people who have changed the world by transforming their own economies. China and India have been driving the greatest poverty reduction in human history by creating the world’s largest middle classes. In a single generation, Vietnam has moved from being one of the world’s poorest nations to being a middle-income country.

 

 RUSSIA'S OIL EXPORTS UP
2017, November, 15, 15:10:00

RUSSIA'S OIL EXPORTS UP

Product exports have grown significantly over the past several years and are expected to continue to grow as Russian refineries add capacity to produce more high-quality products.

 

 

 

         WBG & IMF NEED CHINA
2017, September, 13, 15:05:00

WBG & IMF NEED CHINA

We reiterate our commitment to a strong, quota-based, and adequately resourced IMF to preserve its role at the center of the Global Financial Safety Net. We support the work of the IMF to strengthen its cooperation with regional financing arrangements, and its ongoing work to further enhance the effectiveness of its lending toolkit.

 

 RUSSIA'S GDP UP 1.8%
2017, November, 14, 17:40:00

RUSSIA'S GDP UP 1.8%

The Russian economy is recovering from a full-blown crisis caused by a massive drop in prices for oil, its key export, and by economic sanctions imposed by the West over Moscow’s role in the Ukraine crisis.

 

 

 

 

         IMF BUYS IRAQ
2017, August, 3, 12:25:00

IMF BUYS IRAQ

The completion of the second review allows the authorities to draw the equivalent of SDR 584.2 million (about US$ 824.8 million), bringing total disbursements to SDR 1494.2 million about US$ 2109.7 million. The SDR 3.831 billion arrangement (about US$5.34 billion at the time of approval of the arrangement) was approved in July, 2016 and the first review was completed on December 5, 2016.

 

 RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: 10.91 MBD
2017, October, 2, 14:50:00

RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: 10.91 MBD

Russian oil output stood at 10.91 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, unchanged from August and staying at a low for the year

 

         IMF WANT EUROPE
2017, July, 26, 14:35:00

IMF WANT EUROPE

The European Union could do more to convince countries to put EU reform recommendations into practice. For example, targeted support from the EU budget could be provided to incentivize reforms. 

 

 SANCTIONS FOREVER
2017, August, 3, 12:35:00

SANCTIONS FOREVER

“It represents the will of the American people to see Russia take steps to improve relations with the United States. We hope there will be cooperation between our two countries on major global issues so that these sanctions will no longer be necessary.”

 

 

         IMF NEED RUSSIA
2017, July, 17, 13:50:00

IMF NEED RUSSIA

Directors underscored that accelerated structural reforms and broader trade relations can help promote a diversified export mix. They also urged the authorities to strengthen property rights, advance privatization, improve governance, and invest in innovation and infrastructure to build the foundations for higher potential growth.

 

 RUSSIAN STRUCTURAL REFORMS
2017, May, 22, 16:45:00

RUSSIAN STRUCTURAL REFORMS

IMF - advancing decisively on the structural reform agenda to improve growth potential and rebalance growth towards non-commodity sectors.

 

 

 

         IMF WANT BRAZIL
2017, July, 17, 13:40:00

IMF WANT BRAZIL

Directors observed that the financial sector has remained sound despite the severe stresses. To make the system more robust, they encouraged actions to further strengthen financial safety nets through enhanced monitoring and an improved crisis management framework. 

 

 EU WITH RUSSIA SANCTIONS
2017, February, 7, 18:45:00

EU WITH RUSSIA SANCTIONS

The European Union, although reliant on Russian oil and gas, says it will never recognize Moscow's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and expects the Kremlin to abide by the Minsk peace deal brokered for eastern Ukraine.

         IMF: U.S. ISN'T WORKING WELL
2017, June, 28, 15:05:00

IMF: U.S. ISN'T WORKING WELL

All in all, in our judgement, the U.S. economic model is not working as well as it could in generating broadly shared income growth.

 

Tags: IMF, RUSSIA, ECONOMY

Chronicle:

IMF: RUSSIA'S RECOVERY
2017, December, 11, 09:55:00

SAUDIS OIL FOR JAPAN

REUTERS - State oil company Saudi Aramco last week raised prices for all crude oil grades to Asia in January.

IMF: RUSSIA'S RECOVERY
2017, December, 11, 09:50:00

U.S. EMPLOYMENT UP BY 228,000

U.S. BLS - Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 228,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care.

IMF: RUSSIA'S RECOVERY
2017, December, 11, 09:45:00

ДОХОДЫ РОССИИ: +204,8 МЛРД. РУБ.

Отклонение нефтегазовых доходов федерального бюджета от месячной оценки, соответствующей Федеральному закону о федеральном бюджете на 2017-2019 годы, в декабре 2017 года прогнозируется в размере +204,8 млрд руб.

IMF: RUSSIA'S RECOVERY
2017, December, 11, 09:40:00

OPEC WILL BACK BY 2040

“Tight oil supplies are the wild card. They have reshaped the global outlook in recent years,” observed Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, who directs the research division at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. “US tight oil supplies will be the most important contributor but are expected to reach their peak around 2025.”

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