OIL PRICE 2018: $55
OGJ - Light, sweet crude oil prices gained more than $1 to close above $55/bbl on the New York market Nov. 3—the second consecutive day the US benchmark reached a settlement high since July 2015.
Barclays analysts credited recent oil-price support to reports of global economic growth and new supply disruptions. Overall, ample world oil supplies are falling.
"Owing to the improvement in the inventory situation, which has accelerated due to unforeseen disruptions, prices have broken above resistance levels established earlier this year," Barclays said. "Brent appears to be consolidating around $60/bbl and could make another move higher, targeting $70/bbl."
But Barclays analysts said $70/bbl "would be unsustainable both fundamentally and from a positioning perspective and would thus be short lived."
Barclays raised its Brent oil price forecast, saying Brent will average $60/bbl during the fourth quarter and will average $55/bbl in 2018. The average 2018 forecast was up $3 compared with Barclays earlier forecast.
"We have long forecasted a tightening fundamental backdrop in the second half of this year," Barclays analysts said. "We think this strength will be sustained through first quarter next year."
They cited tightening world oil supplies stemming from a variety of reasons, including a 300,000 b/d drop in northern Iraq crude exports and production during October due to unrest and technical issues.
"Hurricane-related production shut ins in the Gulf of Mexico reduced US and Mexican supply by more than 500,000 b/d in September," Barclays said. "Finally, a synchronized and robust global economic recovery has emerged."
In addition, Chinese oil demand growth is expected "to remain robust in 2018," Barclays said.
The December light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased $1.10 to $55.64/bbl on Nov. 3. The January 2018 contract rose $1.09 to $55.86/bbl.
The NYMEX natural gas price for December climbed nearly 5¢ to $2.98/MMbtu. The Henry Hub cash gas price for Nov. 3 was $2.74/MMbtu, up 5¢.
Heating oil for December rose 3¢ to $1.88/gal. The NYMEX reformulated gasoline blendstock for December climbed 2¢ to a rounded $1.79/gal.
The Brent crude contract for January 2018 on London's ICE gained $1.45 to $62.07/bbl. The February 2018 contract increased $1.43 to $61.80/bbl. The gas oil contract for November was up $5.75 to $560.25/tonne.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' basket of crudes price was up 66¢ Nov. 3 to $59.15/bbl.
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REUTERS - India’s natural gas consumption is expected to rise to 70 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2022 and 100 bcm by 2030, according to a government think tank and the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, up from 50 bcm now. India burns just 7 percent of what top user the United States consumes in a year with about a quarter of India’s population.
Norway, which relies on oil and gas for about a fifth of economic output, would be less vulnerable to declining crude prices without its fund investing in the industry, the central bank said Thursday. The divestment would mark the second major step in scrubbing the world’s biggest wealth fund of climate risk, after it sold most of its coal stocks.
WSJ - Light, sweet crude for December delivery rose $1.41, or 2.6%, to $56.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, snapping a three-session losing streak. Brent, the global benchmark, advanced $1.36, or 2.2%, to $62.72 a barrel.
U.S. Rig Count is up 327 rigs from last year's count of 588, with oil rigs up 267, gas rigs up 61, and miscellaneous rigs down 1 to 1. Canada Rig Count is up 24 rigs from last year's count of 184, with oil rigs up 9 and gas rigs up 15.