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2017-11-29 10:00:00

OPEC OIL EXPECTATIONS

OPEC OIL EXPECTATIONS

BLOOMBERGWith tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran ratcheting up and OPEC about to announce its plans for global crude supply, investors would be forgiven for anticipating a few gyrations in oil prices. The opposite has happened: the market is the calmest it's been for almost nine months.

Implied volatility, a gauge of expected price moves, dropped to about 22 percent on Friday for New York-traded crude. That was the lowest level since early March and close to a three-year low. Other gauges of turbulence have also traded at multi-year lows since the start of October, despite the escalating tensions and meetings this week in Vienna, where OPEC and allied oil-producer states will discuss the extension of supply curbs that propped up the market.

The problem for those hedge funds that thrive off sharp intraday price moves is that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries already sign-posted its next move: the producer group and Russia, the key non-member partner to the curbs deal, are said to have agreed a framework to extend cuts to the end of next year. The options market is pricing in daily price moves of less than 90 cents a barrel for the nearest contract, a historically low level, said Thibaut Remoundos, founder of London-based Commodities Trading Corporation Ltd.

"A priced-in move of under 90 cents a barrel reflects the expectation that Thursday will be not be a shocker and that they will communicate Central Bank-style, containing the price," he said, referring to the day of OPEC's main meeting. A "real pop" would arise if OPEC's plans disappointed the market and Commodity Trading Advisers, who often buy or sell crude futures based on technical indicators, reversed their "extreme" bullish positions, he added.

Long Trades

Funds have been snapping up bullish bets on crude in recent weeks. There were more than a billion barrels of outright long positions in the Brent and WTI markets combined last week, as expectations grew that OPEC will succeed in rebalancing the market.

There's always the risk that the outcome of Thursday's meeting fails to live up to the market's expectations, sending prices down. Volatility offers "decent value" into the OPEC meeting as current levels "do not yet reflect a high risk premium for Thursday," Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report on Monday, when WTI volatility nudged higher to just over 23 percent.

Any disappointments could spark a sharp increase in volatility, analysts at BNP Paribas SA and JPMorgan Chase & Co. wrote last week.

OPEC's meeting "could potentially trigger a good sized sell-off in the flat price and a sharp rally in volatility" should the group's decisions underwhelm the market, JPMorgan analysts including John Normand said.

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Earlier:

Prices
November, 27, 20:20:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $63 ANEW

BLOOMBERG - West Texas Intermediate for January delivery was at $58.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 44 cents, at 10:22 a.m. London time. Total volume traded was about 24 percent above the 100-day average. Prices gained 93 cents to $58.95 on Friday, capping a 4.2 percent weekly advance. Brent for January settlement fell 21 cents to $63.65 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, after rising 1.8 percent last week. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.11 to WTI.

 

 Prices
November, 27, 20:15:00

РОССИЯ ПОДДЕРЖИВАЕТ СОКРАЩЕНИЕ

МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - «Мы видим, что с рынка ушло примерно 50% излишком запасов нефти, мы видим, что цена сбалансировалась и вышла на достаточно приемлемый уровень в районе 60 и выше долларов за баррель марки Brent, инвестиции начали уже в 17-м году расти, а до этого они 15-16-й год падали. Тем не менее, мы не достигли еще до конца цели по балансировке рынка, и сегодня практически все выступают за то, что необходимо продлить сделку дополнительно для того, чтобы достичь окончательных целей. В принципе, Россия тоже поддерживает такие предложения, рассматриваются разные варианты».

 

 Prices
November, 27, 20:05:00

OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND

BLOOMBERG - Global crude inventories are declining and supply and demand are in balance, according to the head of Saudi Aramco, while the United Arab Emirates energy minister said U.S. shale oil doesn’t threaten OPEC’s efforts to support the market.

 

 Prices
November, 24, 09:45:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $63 TOO

BLOOMBERG - WTI for January delivery was at $58.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:25 p.m. in Singapore, up 41 cents. The contract added $1.19 to $58.02 on Wednesday. There was no settlement Thursday because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. and all transactions will be booked Friday. Brent for January settlement lost 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $63.41 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices rose 23 cents to $63.55 on Thursday. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $4.98 to WTI.

 

 Prices
November, 24, 09:20:00

OPEC WILL REDUCE

REUTERS - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, non-member Russia and nine other producers agreed to curb oil output by about 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. They are expected to extend the deal at a Nov. 30 meeting in Vienna.

 

 Prices
November, 22, 11:35:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $63 AGAIN

BLOOMBERG - West Texas Intermediate for January delivery gained as much as 97 cents to $57.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $57.72 at 1 p.m. in Hong Kong. The contract added 41 cents to $56.83 on Tuesday. Brent for January settlement added 44 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $63.01 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after climbing 0.6 percent on Tuesday. The global benchmark traded at a premium of $5.31 to WTI.

 

 Prices
November, 20, 09:35:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $62 YET

REUTERS - Brent crude futures LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $62.56 per barrel at 0439 GMT, down 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $56.59 a barrel, up 4 cents, or 0.1 percent, from their last settlement.

 

 

Tags: OPEC, RUSSIA, OIL, PRICE

Chronicle:

OPEC OIL EXPECTATIONS
2017, December, 11, 09:55:00

SAUDIS OIL FOR JAPAN

REUTERS - State oil company Saudi Aramco last week raised prices for all crude oil grades to Asia in January.

OPEC OIL EXPECTATIONS
2017, December, 11, 09:50:00

U.S. EMPLOYMENT UP BY 228,000

U.S. BLS - Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 228,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care.

OPEC OIL EXPECTATIONS
2017, December, 11, 09:45:00

ДОХОДЫ РОССИИ: +204,8 МЛРД. РУБ.

Отклонение нефтегазовых доходов федерального бюджета от месячной оценки, соответствующей Федеральному закону о федеральном бюджете на 2017-2019 годы, в декабре 2017 года прогнозируется в размере +204,8 млрд руб.

OPEC OIL EXPECTATIONS
2017, December, 11, 09:40:00

OPEC WILL BACK BY 2040

“Tight oil supplies are the wild card. They have reshaped the global outlook in recent years,” observed Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, who directs the research division at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. “US tight oil supplies will be the most important contributor but are expected to reach their peak around 2025.”

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