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2017-12-29 11:30:00

SAUDIS REVENUE WILL UP TO $280 BLN

SAUDIS REVENUE WILL UP TO $280 BLN

BLOOMBERG - Saudi Arabia's plan to erase its budget deficit by 2023 relies on a scenario that would see oil revenue surge by about 80 percent, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Under a six-year fiscal program, officials predict rising oil prices and output will push income from oil sales to 801.4 billion riyals ($214 billion) from 440 billion riyals this year, the people said on condition of anonymity because they aren't authorized to share the data publicly. It assumes the price of oil will reach $75 a barrel. Non-oil revenue, excluding income from the Public Investment Fund, would increase 32 percent to 337 billion riyals, they said.

The forecasts show how essential crude prices are to repair public finances even as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman tries to prepare the kingdom for the post-oil era. The kingdom has led a drive among major non-OPEC members to stabilize oil markets through production cuts that have helped Brent crude prices gained 17 percent this year to $66.87 a barrel on Wednesday.

The oil revenue forecast "looks challenging given the development in the shale industry," said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. "The strong oil revenue growth in 2017 will be difficult to repeat."

Authorities expect oil production to increase from an average of 10 million barrels a day this year to 11.03 million barrels in 2023. For 2020, they predict output of 10.45 million barrels a day, generating 605 billion riyals in revenue, the people said.

The Ministry of Finance declined to comment.

The scenario may signal that the world's biggest oil exporter doesn't currently see a need to extend the agreement to cut production beyond 2018 as a global supply glut eases.

Easing austerity "could prove premature if oil prices disappoint," Jean-Michel Saliba, an economist at BofA Merrill Lynch in London, wrote in a report last week. "Energy policy is likely to remain focused on supporting the oil market rebalancing and enabling the government's shift to boost growth near-term."

The kingdom's benchmark Tadawul All Share Index gained 0.3 percent at 11:05 a.m. in Riyadh.

Top Saudi officials last week rolled out an expansionary budget for 2018 to revive an economy battered by austerity and low oil prices. Gross domestic product contracted 0.5 percent in 2017.

A document outlining some details of the fiscal program and published by the Saudi Press Agency showed authorities expected non-oil economic growth to stay above 3 percent through 2020 from 1.5 percent this year. The document has since been deleted from the agency's website.

 

(FIGURES IN BILLIONS OF RIYALS)2017201820192020202120222023
Government revenue 696 783 843 909 955 1,049 1,138
Government spending 926 978 1,006 1,050 1,080 1,107 1,134
Public debt 438 555 673 749 805 854 854
Government Reserves at SAMA 584 456 411 345 276 267 271

Source: Saudi Ministry of Finance

 

Economy Minister Mohammad Al Tuwaijri, speaking after the budget release on Tuesday, said that the kingdom "found it appropriate to move to a more optimistic scenario" in fiscal planning. "We're very satisfied with what happened in 2017, and we'll continue on this journey."

The budget deficit narrowed to about 9 percent of GDP this year.

 

       20162017201820192020
GDP growth (%)                            1.7     -0.5      2.7      2.7      2.8 
Non-oil GDP growth (%)                0.2      1.5      3.7      3.1      3.2 

Source: Ministry of Economy and Planning, General Statistics Authority

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Earlier:

SAUDIS EXPECTS +12%
2017, December, 20, 19:35:00

SAUDIS EXPECTS +12%

BLOOMBERG - Saudi Arabia expects oil revenue to jump 12 percent next year in a sign the world’s biggest crude exporter expects prices to keep rising in 2018.

 

 SAUDI ARABIA - RUSSIA COMPROMISE
2017, December, 4, 23:10:00

SAUDI ARABIA - RUSSIA COMPROMISE

REUTERS - The outcome represents a successful compromise between de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia (which wanted to announce an extension throughout 2018) and non-OPEC heavyweight Russia (which wanted to avoid giving such a long commitment).

 

 SAUDIS PROGRESS
2017, October, 30, 11:40:00

SAUDIS PROGRESS

IMF - Saudi Arabia had made good progress in initiating its ambitious reform agenda. Fiscal consolidation efforts are beginning to bear fruit. Progress with reforms to improve the business environment are gaining momentum, and a framework to increase the transparency and accountability of government is in place. Effective prioritization, sequencing, and coordination of the reforms is essential, and they need to be well-communicated and equitable to gain social buy-in to ensure their success.

 

 SAUDI ARAMCO IPO
2017, October, 16, 11:50:00

SAUDI ARAMCO IPO

Saudi Arabia is considering delaying the international portion of the giant initial public offering of its state oil company until at least 2019, according to people familiar with the situation, who said a domestic share sale in Riyadh could still happen next year.

 

 SAUDI'S BANKS ARE BETTER
2017, October, 16, 11:45:00

SAUDI'S BANKS ARE BETTER

But we expect a rise in the sector's NPL ratio and muted credit demand in the second half of 2017 and 2018, reflecting the slowing economy. GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in 2016 from 3.4% in 2015 and we expect it to be below 1% in 2017 and 2018.

 

 SAUDI'S DEFICIT DOWN
2017, August, 14, 14:20:00

SAUDI'S DEFICIT DOWN

Saudi Arabia's state budget deficit shrank by a fifth from a year earlier in the second quarter of this year as revenues rose moderately and spending fell marginally, finance ministry figures showed on Sunday.

 

 SAUDI'S GDP GROWTH: ZERO
2017, July, 24, 13:40:00

SAUDI'S GDP GROWTH: ZERO

Non-oil growth is projected to pick up to 1.7 percent in 2017, but overall real GDP growth is expected to be close to zero as oil GDP declines in line with Saudi Arabia’s commitments under the OPEC+ agreement.

 

 

 

Tags: SAUDI, ARABIA, OIL, REVENUE

Chronicle:

SAUDIS REVENUE WILL UP TO $280 BLN
2018, January, 19, 12:15:00

S.KOREA'S DIVERSIFICATION

PLATTS - For full-year 2017, South Korea's crude imports from its biggest supplier Saudi Arabia fell 1.7% to 319.02 million barrels, compared with 324.45 million barrels in the previous year, customs data showed. On the contrary, South Korea has imported 1.77 million mt, or around 13 million barrels, of crude from the US in 2017, about four times higher than in 2016. Shipments from Russia grew to 140,000 b/d last year from 112,000 b/d in 2016.

SAUDIS REVENUE WILL UP TO $280 BLN
2018, January, 19, 12:10:00

ADNOC'S 2030 STRATEGY

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SAUDIS REVENUE WILL UP TO $280 BLN
2018, January, 19, 12:05:00

TOSHIBA SELLS WESTINGHOUSE

WNN - Under the terms of the assignment and purchase agreement it has signed with Nucleus and Brookfield, Toshiba will sell its rights to assert claims against Westinghouse related to the parent guarantees in the amount of $5.788 billion, and on account of other claims Toshiba holds against Westinghouse in the amount of $2.284 billion to Nucleus, for the sale price of $2.160 billion.

SAUDIS REVENUE WILL UP TO $280 BLN
2018, January, 17, 23:50:00

OIL PRICES: NOT ABOVE $70 YET

REUTERS - Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $69.23 a barrel at 0808 GMT, up 8 cents from their last close, but down from a high of $69.37 earlier in the day. Brent on Monday rose to $70.37 a barrel, its highest since December 2014, the start of a three-year oil price slump. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $63.84 a barrel, down from a high of $63.89 earlier, but up 11 cents from their last settlement. WTI hit $64.89 on Tuesday, also the highest since December 2014.

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