OIL PRICES: OVER $50 AGAIN
REUTERS - Oil edged higher on Friday, boosted by hopes that an OPEC output cut was beginning to balance a long-oversupplied market, but benchmark prices were on track for weekly losses as concerns persisted over an excess of crude.
Benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $50.72 per barrel at 1255 GMT, up 16 cents from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were up 20 cents at $47.90 a barrel. Brent was heading for a weekly fall of around 2 percent, while WTI was off just over 1.8 percent.
Analysts said the gains were a sign that the crude benchmarks, trading roughly 12 percent below the highs reached in January this year, had leveled out.
"The flat price is starting to bottom. A lot of the negativity has been priced in," said Olivier Jakob, managing director of PetroMatrix.
Saudi Arabia said its crude exports to the United States would fall by around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) between February and March, boosting price sentiment. It said the expected drop could help draw down U.S. inventories that stood at a record 533 million barrels in the week to last week.
In the United States, shale drilling has pushed up oil production C-OUT-T-EIA by more than 8 percent since mid-2016 to just above 9.1 million bpd, though producers have left a record number of wells unfinished in Permian, the largest oilfield in the country, a sign that output may not rise as swiftly as drilling activity would indicate.
Saudi exports to other regions, notably Asia, remained elevated despite an effort led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and supported by other producers including Russia, to cut output by 1.8 million bpd during the first half of the year.
Many are now watching for whether OPEC, whose committee monitoring the cuts will meet over the weekend in Kuwait, will extend the deal.
In Russia, private oil producers are ditching their scepticism and lining up behind an extension of output cuts after previous oil price increases compensated for lost income.
Unless OPEC extends the curbs beyond June or makes bigger cuts, traders say oil prices are at risk of falling further.
"OPEC's goal of drawing down inventories to normal levels is not going to be reached before their agreement expires on June 30," said U.S. investment bank Jefferies in a note to clients.
Dennis Gartman, founder and editor of the Gartman Letter said the longer-term outlook was for continuing low oil prices.
"This slump is very real ... Fracking has only just begun here in the U.S. and it will be transferred swiftly to other countries abroad, so the supply of crude oil is going to increase rather dramatically in the years to come," he told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Friday.
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AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.
REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.
IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.