IEA: OIL MARKET BALANCE
IEA - GLOBAL OIL MARKET BALANCE
- Global demand growth of 1.3 mb/d is forecast for 2017, a second consecutive annual decline and slightly below our prior forecast following weaker than expected 1Q17 demand. Subdued gains in Russia and India, and weaker momentum in OECD countries, were key factors.
- World oil supply fell by 755 kb/d in March as OPEC and non-OPEC producers pumped less and improved compliance with the output reduction pact. Total non-OPEC output is set to rise again, however, with growth of 485 kb/d expected in 2017, recovering from a decline of 790 kb/d last year.
- OPEC crude output fell by 365 kb/d in March to 31.68 mb/d, led by losses in Nigeria, Libya - both exempt from supply cuts - and Saudi Arabia. OPEC's 1Q17 output of 31.9 mb/d was 240 kb/d below the 1Q17 "call" on its crude. The call rises to 32.9 mb/d in 2Q17, which implies global stocks will draw further if OPEC maintains solid adherence to its supply cut.
- OECD industry stocks drew moderately in February and are forecast to fall further in March. However, due to January's large build, we estimate OECD stocks gained 38.5 mb (425 kb/d) in 1Q17. Marginal stocks held offshore or in smaller facilities drew by an estimated 325 kb/d during the same period.
- Crude prices fell more than $3/bbl on average in March, but rose by $5/bbl in early April. Money managers cut their net long positions in crude futures by 200 mb in March amid the price fall. Product prices showed few signs of rallying during the refinery maintenance season.
- After 1Q17's almost flat performance vs 1Q16, refinery throughput in 2Q17 will grow 1.15 mb/d y-o-y. Refinery crude demand will surge by 3.5 mb/d between March and July, with most of the increase coming from Atlantic Basin refiners and the Middle East.
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WNN - Asia needs nuclear energy to meet its economic, energy and environmental goals, but such plans are still in the development phase in the South East region of the continent, Agneta Rising, director general of World Nuclear Association, said.
NPD - Preliminary production figures for February 2018 show an average daily production of 1 944 000 barrels of oil, NGL and condensate, which is a decrease of 83 000 barrels per day compared to January.
AOG - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the world’s third largest oil company, has been awarded stakes in two of Abu Dhabi’s offshore concession areas following the signing of agreements with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).
REUTERS - U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $63.69 a barrel at 0744 GMT, up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their previous close. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $67.56 per barrel, up 14 cents, or 0.2 percent.