IEA: OIL MARKET BALANCE
IEA - GLOBAL OIL MARKET BALANCE
- Global demand growth of 1.3 mb/d is forecast for 2017, a second consecutive annual decline and slightly below our prior forecast following weaker than expected 1Q17 demand. Subdued gains in Russia and India, and weaker momentum in OECD countries, were key factors.
- World oil supply fell by 755 kb/d in March as OPEC and non-OPEC producers pumped less and improved compliance with the output reduction pact. Total non-OPEC output is set to rise again, however, with growth of 485 kb/d expected in 2017, recovering from a decline of 790 kb/d last year.
- OPEC crude output fell by 365 kb/d in March to 31.68 mb/d, led by losses in Nigeria, Libya - both exempt from supply cuts - and Saudi Arabia. OPEC's 1Q17 output of 31.9 mb/d was 240 kb/d below the 1Q17 "call" on its crude. The call rises to 32.9 mb/d in 2Q17, which implies global stocks will draw further if OPEC maintains solid adherence to its supply cut.
- OECD industry stocks drew moderately in February and are forecast to fall further in March. However, due to January's large build, we estimate OECD stocks gained 38.5 mb (425 kb/d) in 1Q17. Marginal stocks held offshore or in smaller facilities drew by an estimated 325 kb/d during the same period.
- Crude prices fell more than $3/bbl on average in March, but rose by $5/bbl in early April. Money managers cut their net long positions in crude futures by 200 mb in March amid the price fall. Product prices showed few signs of rallying during the refinery maintenance season.
- After 1Q17's almost flat performance vs 1Q16, refinery throughput in 2Q17 will grow 1.15 mb/d y-o-y. Refinery crude demand will surge by 3.5 mb/d between March and July, with most of the increase coming from Atlantic Basin refiners and the Middle East.
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AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.
REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.
IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.