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2017-04-12 18:50:00

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $54 - $57

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $54 - $57

EIASHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK

Forecast Highlights

U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. U.S crude oil production is forecast to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.9 million b/d in 2018.

North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $52 per barrel (b) in March, $3/b lower than the February average. EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $54/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018.

NYMEX contract values for July 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending April 6 suggest that a range of $41/b to $66/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in July 2017 at the 95% confidence level.

U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 0.8 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, which was the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to be 4.0 Bcf/d above the 2017 level.

In March, the average Henry Hub natural gas spot price was $2.88 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), 3 cents/MMBtu above the February level. Prices increased as temperatures in March returned to more seasonally typical levels after being significantly warmer than normal in February.

New natural gas export capabilities and growing domestic natural gas consumption contribute to the forecast Henry Hub natural gas spot price rising from an average of $3.10/MMBtu in 2017 to $3.45/MMBtu in 2018. NYMEX contract values for July 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending April 6 suggest that a range of $2.49/MMBtu to $4.59/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for Henry Hub natural gas prices in July 2017 at the 95% confidence level.

Prices

North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $52 per barrel (b) in March, $3/b lower than the February average. EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $54/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018.

NYMEX contract values for July 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending April 6 suggest that a range of $41/b to $66/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in July 2017 at the 95% confidence level.

In March, the average Henry Hub natural gas spot price was $2.88 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), 3 cents/MMBtu above the February level. Prices increased as temperatures in March returned to more seasonally typical levels after being significantly warmer than normal in February.

WTI OIL PRICE 2016 - 2018

NATURAL GAS PRICES 2016 - 2018

 

Crude Oil

EIA expects world crude oil and liquid fuels supply to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017 and by 1.9 million b/d in 2018. Compared with the previous forecast, these growth estimates are higher by about by 0.1 million b/d and 0.2 million b/d, respectively, because of higher expected U.S. and Brazilian crude oil production growth. Expected world liquid fuels consumption growth is mostly unchanged from the previous forecast at 1.5 million b/d in 2017 and 1.6 million b/d in 2018. EIA expects the market to be relatively balanced in 2017 and forecasts the Brent crude oil spot price to average $54/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018.

U.S. crude oil production was an estimated 9.1 million b/d in March, the highest level in a year. Production is forecast to grow by an average of 0.3 million b/d in 2017 and by 0.7 million b/d 2018.

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Earlier:

OIL PRICES: ABOVE $55 

РОССИЯ: РОСТ ДОХОДОВ НА 50% 

OPEC: HISTORIC DECISIONS 

MAY OIL PRICES: ABOVE $50 

RUSSIAN ARCTIC OIL: $70

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: OIL, PRICES, BRENT, WTI

Chronicle:

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $54 - $57
2018, February, 16, 23:15:00

DEWA INVESTS $22 BLN

AOG - The Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (DEWA) is to invest around $22bn on new energy projects across the next five years, with the renewables sector accounting for an increasing share of electricity generation, according to CEO Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer.

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $54 - $57
2018, February, 16, 23:10:00

TRANSCANADA NET INCOME $3.0 BLN

TRANSCANADA - TransCanada Corporation (TSX:TRP) (NYSE:TRP) (TransCanada or the Company) announced net income attributable to common shares for fourth quarter 2017 of $861 million or $0.98 per share compared to a net loss of $358 million or $0.43 per share for the same period in 2016. For the year ended December 31, 2017, net income attributable to common shares was $3.0 billion or $3.44 per share compared to net income of $124 million or $0.16 per share in 2016.

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $54 - $57
2018, February, 16, 23:05:00

RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FOR CONGO

ROSATOM - February 13, 2018, Moscow. – ROSATOM and the Ministry of Scientific Research and Technological Innovations of the Republic of Congo today signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the field of peaceful uses of atomic energy.

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $54 - $57
2018, February, 16, 23:00:00

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN 0.1%

FRB - Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in January following four consecutive monthly increases. Manufacturing production was unchanged in January. Mining output fell 1.0 percent, with all of its major component industries recording declines, while the index for utilities moved up 0.6 percent. At 107.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.7 percent higher in January than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.2 percentage point in January to 77.5 percent, a rate that is 2.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

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