OIL PRICES: $50 - $60
BLOOMBERG - A crude price in the $50s is the new reality for bosses of some of the world's largest producers as output caps from OPEC and its allies are balanced out by rising U.S. shale.
Executives of energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc to Russia's Lukoil PJSC and Gazprom PJSC, who gathered this week at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, see an oil price of $50 to $55 at least for this year.
"Unless something extreme happens, we are not going to get back to much higher," IHS Markit Ltd. Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin, author of the definitive history of the oil industry, said in an interview at the conference on Friday. "The exception was $100 per barrel, that was an aberrant period. The industry is recalibrating to a lower price level."
After trading at around $100 from 2011 to 2013, oil slumped to about half that level in 2014 and stayed there as members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries battled for market share against a booming U.S. industry. While OPEC returned last year to its more traditional role of cutting output, prices have failed to mount a sustainable recovery amid another surge from American shale producers who have significantly reduced operating costs.
Oil prices fell last week after OPEC and allies including Russia agreed to extend their output cuts for another nine months through March 2018. The slide deepened this week, with international benchmark Brent crude slipping below $50. Part of the problem is that production is increasing in members such as Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from making cuts as they restore output after internal strife, said BP Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley.
In the view of Igor Sechin, the Rosneft CEO and close ally of President Vladimir Putin, shale oil is another problem. Output could increase by about 1.5 million barrels a day next year, not much below the 1.8 million barrel-a-day cut implemented by OPEC and its allies.
"A decrease in production under an agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC could largely be balanced out by an increase in U.S. shale oil production by the middle of 2018," Sechin said.
The pact between OPEC and its allies is "a good deal" and the market needs some "stable policy," said Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne. Even so, he said it's difficult to predict if the deal could be extended further into 2018. His BP counterpart agreed.
"It's sort of unprecedented agreement," said Dudley. "My view is we won't know until the very last minute" whether it will continue.
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Saudi Arabia is considering delaying the international portion of the giant initial public offering of its state oil company until at least 2019, according to people familiar with the situation, who said a domestic share sale in Riyadh could still happen next year.
But we expect a rise in the sector's NPL ratio and muted credit demand in the second half of 2017 and 2018, reflecting the slowing economy. GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in 2016 from 3.4% in 2015 and we expect it to be below 1% in 2017 and 2018.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia have been cutting oil production this year to bring fuel inventories in industrialized nations back in line with the five-year average.
The Japanese government will offer $10 billion to support firms bidding to build liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure around Asia, the Nikkei business daily said on Monday.